Forecasting Confirmed Malaria Cases in Northwestern Province of Zambia: A Time Series Analysis Using 2014–2020 Routine Data

Mukumbuta, Nawa; Zimba, Rosemary K.; Mulikita, Catherine M.; Mwandia, Jim; Mwaba, Henry; Sichinga, Karen

doi:10.1155/2021/6522352

Cited by 9 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…In addition, environmental factors such as attending day schools and walking long distances to school were shown to be associated with a higher risk of contracting teenage pregnancies compared to boarding schools. This finding has also been supported in other studies carried out in sub-Saharan African countries like South Africa and Ghana (14, 45, 46). Economic factors have also been shown to affect teenage pregnancies.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Socio-Cultural Factors and Experiences of School Going Teenage Mothers in Rural Zambia: A Phenomenological Study

Menda,

Zimba,

Mulikita

et al. 2023

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Background: Teenage pregnancies disproportionately affect developing countries more than developed countries. This study aimed to explore the social-cultural dynamics and experiences of teenage school-going mothers in a rural district of the Eastern Province of Zambia to understand the lived experiences of teenage mothers in-depth. Methods: This was a phenomenological study done in two schools in one of the provinces with the highest teenage pregnancy rates in Zambia. Data were analysed thematically in a deductive approach using a framework from a recent systematic review done in studies on teenage pregnancies from sub-Saharan Africa. A total of 26 school-going adolescents and young mothers were interviewed. Results: The majority came from poor households in rural areas and lacked knowledge and access to sex education and contraceptive services before falling pregnant. Cultural beliefs and traditional practices fuel misconceptions about contraceptives and condom use and create a narrative/expectation among the girls of wanting to experience sex. They experienced rejection and stigma during pregnancy and were now experiencing hardships in fending for themselves and their babies. Contemporary programs were either non-existent or did not adequately address the economic and psychosocial challenges being faced by teenage mothers, highlighting the need for more responsive interventions. Conclusion: This study found that teenage and young mothers who re-entered school were more likely to be from poor and large families, first-borns and in day schools. Traditional beliefs and cultural practices influence. They experience discrimination, rejection, low self-esteem and economic hardships.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 86%

Socio-Cultural Factors and Experiences of School Going Teenage Mothers in Rural Zambia: A Phenomenological Study

Menda,

Zimba,

Mulikita

et al. 2023

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“…House reported not having been sprayed last 12 months increased the odds of malaria in under-five children (29)(30)(31). Indoor residual spray chemicals repel and kill mosquitos.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors Associated with Malaria Infection in Under Five Children-Zambia, 2018. A Secondary Analysis of the Malaria Indicator Survey, 2018

Tembo,

Sialubanje,

Malasa

et al. 2023

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IntroductionMalaria is a public health concern in Zambia. In 2018, Zambia reported a 9% malaria prevalence in under-five children, with some provinces reporting above 20%. Factors still driving malaria infection among the country’s under-five children must be investigated. Factors associated with malaria infection among under-five children were investigated.MethodsThis was a secondary analysis of the cross-sectional study for the Zambia Malaria Indicator Survey 2018 (MIS). Multistage sampling was used in the malaria indicator survey. All children aged 6 to 59 months who received malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) in the data set were considered for the study. Malaria infection: Tested positive or negative for malaria RDT. Sample weights and multivariable logistic regression were used. Backward stepwise regression was used to determine the best model, and the Akaike information criterion was used to select the best model that best fits the data. The Odds ratio measured the association at a 95% confidence level.ResultsA total of 2400 children were analysed. 24.3% (583) tested positive. The median age was 32 (interquartile range (IQR:8-46)) months. Males were 52% (1,249). The odds of malaria infection increased as the child’s age in months increased (aOR=1.004, 95% CI: 1.003, 1.005). Children in the rural had higher odds of malaria than urban children (aOR=1.11,95% CI: 1.05, 1.17). The odds of malaria in children in Copperbelt, Luapula, Muchinga and North-Western Provinces were higher than in children in Central Province (p-value <0.05). Children whose houses did not receive IRS had increased odds of malaria compared to children whose houses received IRS (aOR=1.05, 95%CI: 1.01, 1.09). Sex was not statistically significant.ConclusionAn increase in age, living in the rural and northern parts of Zambia was associated with malaria infection. Increasing malaria prevention and control measures for older children, rural communities, and the northern parts of Zambia may help reduce malaria prevalence.Strengths and LimitationsThe study used a large dataset of the Malaria Indicator Survey 2018 that was powered to be nationally representative of Zambia, urban and rural strata, and provincial levels.The study used a complex data analysis considering household weights, census enumeration areas and provinces, addressing intra-cluster correlations.The study addressed confounding using multivariable regressing and determined the best-fit model using Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) in a backward stepwise regressing.The study’s main limitation is that it is a survey that simultaneously assessed the outcome and exposure variables, eliciting associations only and not causality.

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“…Zambia is a southern African country with a tropical climate and has malaria transmission throughout the year with peak malaria season during the rainy and hot season from November to April (30). The country then experiences a dry cool season from May to August and then from September to October, the weather is hot and dry (31). Zambia experience more malaria in the northern parts of the country which receive more rainfall than the southern parts which receive less rainfall (31).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The country then experiences a dry cool season from May to August and then from September to October, the weather is hot and dry (31). Zambia experience more malaria in the northern parts of the country which receive more rainfall than the southern parts which receive less rainfall (31).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Indoor Residual Spraying on Prevalence of Malaria among Under-five Children in Zambia; A Retrospective Cohort Study

Kapiya,

Sialubanje,

Nawa

2024

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Introduction: Malaria remains a global challenge despite the efforts to eliminate it by 2030 by the WHO and its partner countries. About 93.6% of the malaria cases and 95.4% of the deaths occurred in Africa. Zambia is one of the top 20 highly endemic countries with about a third (29.3%) of all children aged 6 to 59 months having malaria in 2021 and it accounts for about 1.4% of the global malaria incidence and mortality. Among the interventions used to eliminate malaria is Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS). Existing literature has shown the effects of IRS on malaria prevalence and incidence by comparing IRS versus no IRS intervention. This study assessed the impact of IRS on malaria prevalence over time from when it was done in three monthly cohorts over a period of one year. Methods: This study was a retrospective cohort study. Data was collected retrospectively covering a period of 12 months when the IRS was done in the households where the Malaria Indicator Survey of 2021 was carried out. The study then compared malaria prevalence in closed cohorts of three months. Data was analysed in Stata version 14, descriptive statistics were summarized as counts and percentages, cross-tabulations between the dependent and independent variables were done and measures of association were assessed using univariate and multivariable logistic regression. The level of significance was set at 0.05. Results: The study included 1,786 children aged six to 59 months, and more were female 52.5% (938/1786). Among the children, 14.7% (263/1786) were in the 0 to 3 months cohort, 59.3% (1059/1786) were in the 4 to 6 months cohort, 16.2% (289/1786) in the 7 to 9 months cohort and 9.8% (175/1786) in the 10 to 12 months cohort. The malaria prevalence was 33.4%. There were no significant statistical differences in the malaria prevalence among children in the four cohorts. Conclusion: This study found that over a period of one year, the protective effect of Indoor Residual Spraying was not statistically different among under-five children whether it was done within zero to three months, four to six months, seven to nine months or ten to twelve months. This implies that the protective effects of IRS on malaria prevalence extended equally over a period of 12 months.

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Forecasting Confirmed Malaria Cases in Northwestern Province of Zambia: A Time Series Analysis Using 2014–2020 Routine Data

Cited by 9 publications

References 31 publications

Socio-Cultural Factors and Experiences of School Going Teenage Mothers in Rural Zambia: A Phenomenological Study

Socio-Cultural Factors and Experiences of School Going Teenage Mothers in Rural Zambia: A Phenomenological Study

Factors Associated with Malaria Infection in Under Five Children-Zambia, 2018. A Secondary Analysis of the Malaria Indicator Survey, 2018

The Effects of Indoor Residual Spraying on Prevalence of Malaria among Under-five Children in Zambia; A Retrospective Cohort Study

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