Forecasting Cotton Growth Area of Punjab and Haryana Using the Best Fitted Arima Model

Abstract

The paper attempts forecasting the Cotton Growth area in Punjab and Haryana using the best fitted Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The time series data on area growth of cotton in Punjab and Haryana for the period of last 10 Years i.e. from 2012-13 to 2021-22 is analyzed for this study. The best models are selected by calculating Normalized BIC; Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and maximum values of R . The study revealed that ARIMA (1,1,1) and ARIMA (0,1,1) are the best fitted models for forecasting Growth area of cotton in both states. The analysis shows an increasing trend in area of cotton for both the states Punjab and Haryana.