Forecasting Database Usage During the Height of COVID-19

Abstract

As with other catastrophic events, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted higher education and library services. The authors examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on usage of health databases in 2020. They use time series analysis to create a forecast based on previous years’ activities, and then compare it with actual database usage during the pandemic. The results show an initial increase in searches for the first full month of the pandemic, but then match the expected forecast data and decrease during summer and early fall months. The authors conclude that time series analysis is a useful tool for understanding the impact of events and for planning purposes.