Forecasting economic result of business logic improvements using Game Theory for modeling user scenarios

Abstract

A new approach to user behavior modeling based on Game Theory was proposed. It was developed to consider initial intensity, a strategy applied, a profit gained, and resources utilized as inalienable attributes of users' behavior. The approach covers various aspects of users' motivation and rational actions, not only a statistical image of a pool's summary. Additionally, the given model is strongly connected to profit and loss parameters by operating with profit and utilized resources as parts of model inputs. The proposed model can enable efficient modeling aimed to validate an economic result of existing interfaces and assume results of new ones.

Modeling of the error determination in accepting financial decisions in conditions of uncertainty

“…If in the conducted series of tests quite good results are obtained from the point of view of real values, then it can be concluded that in similar situations the model ( 6) can be used, although there is no guarantee that a situation will not be encountered when this model turns out to be completely unsuitable. This approach is used very limitedly and only in relatively well-established processes, the performance indicator of which has minimal deviations [2].…”