Forecasting eruptions from long-quiescent volcanoes

Abstract

Forecasts of eruption are uncertain. The uncertainty is amplified when volcanoes reawaken after several generations in repose, because direct evidence of previous behaviour is rarely available. It fosters scepticism about warnings of volcanic activity and may compromise the success of emergency procedures. The quality of forecasts has improved over the past 50 years, owing mainly to a growing sophistication in statistical analyses of unrest. Physics-based analyses have yet to achieve the same level of maturity. Their application has been delayed by a view that volcanoes are too complex to share patterns of behaviour that can be described in a deterministic manner. This view is being increasingly challenged and an emerging line of inquiry is to understand how forecasts can be further improved by integrating statistical approaches with new constraints on possible outcomes from physics-based criteria. The introduction of deterministic reasoning yields rational explanations of why forecasts are not perfect and, as a result, offers new opportunities for increasing public confidence in warnings of eruption.

Data analysis of the unsteadily accelerating GPS and seismic records at Campi Flegrei caldera from 2000 to 2020

“…With this respect, the application of the FFM to the Campi Flegrei crisis, with all the assumptions and limits that we explained above, highlights that a possible continuation of the acceleration observed in the last about 15 years implies that a potential critical state of the volcano could not be excluded in the future, also providing a temporal estimate in which this eventuality may occur. This is useful information to volcano observatories responsible for assessing the evolution of a volcanic crisis, and, ultimately, to civil protection authorities and civil society 76 , 96 .…”

Twenty years of explosive-effusive activity at El Reventador volcano (Ecuador) recorded in its geomorphology

“…Forecasting shifts in activity at long-active, open-vent volcanoes such as El Reventador remains extremely difficult as precursory signals are often enigmatic and can be lost in and amongst the daily activity signals (e.g., Cameron et al, 2018;Kilburn and Bell, 2022;Acocella et al, 2023). As there is an open system and magma can freely ascend, many of the traditional precursory signals are not applicable.…”

Volcanic Early Warning Using Shannon Entropy: Multiple Cases of Study

“…Forecasting volcanic eruptions relies on the ability to identify physical and chemical changes in the volcanic system based on the analysis of geophysical and geochemical time series, and in the successful implementation of such data analysis frameworks for pattern recognition in real‐ or quasi‐real‐time (e.g., Ardid et al., 2022; Caudron et al., 2020; Dempsey et al., 2020; Girona et al., 2019, 2021; Manga et al., 2017; McKee et al., 2021a, 2021b; Sparks, 2003; Sparks et al., 2012). After decades of research, the scientific community is currently having certain degree of success in providing volcanic early warnings to the relevant authorities (Cameron et al., 2018; Kilburn, 2018; Kilburn & Bell, 2022). However, due to the variety of eruptive styles, the fact that not every unrest episode ends in eruption and the incapability of most pattern recognition approaches to actually be recognized in real time, forecasting volcanic eruptions remains a challenge (e.g., Jolly et al., 2020; Manley et al., 2021).…”

“…. After decades of research, the scientific community is currently having certain degree of success in providing volcanic early warnings to the relevant authorities (Cameron et al, 2018;Kilburn, 2018;Kilburn & Bell, 2022). However, due to the variety of eruptive styles, the fact that not every unrest episode ends in eruption and the incapability of most pattern recognition approaches to actually be recognized in real time, forecasting volcanic eruptions remains a challenge (e.g., Jolly et al, 2020;Manley et al, 2021).…”