Forecasting experiences associated with supercells over South-Western Poland on July 7, 2017

Poręba, Szymon; Ustrnul, Zbigniew

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104681

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 40 publications

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“…Frequently moving atmospheric fronts, attrition, and the exchange of various air masses (hot and cold) cause the weather to change frequently and creating great problems with weather forecasting [68]. We can find confirmation of the difficulties in inaccurate weather forecasting in Poland in a recent paper that draws attention to the seasonality of the weather in Poland throughout the year [69].…”

Section: The Complexity Of Weather Forecasting In Polandmentioning

confidence: 84%

An ANN Model Trained on Regional Data in the Prediction of Particular Weather Conditions

et al. 2021

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Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have proven to be a powerful tool for solving a wide variety of real-life problems. The possibility of using them for forecasting phenomena occurring in nature, especially weather indicators, has been widely discussed. However, the various areas of the world differ in terms of their difficulty and ability in preparing accurate weather forecasts. Poland lies in a zone with a moderate transition climate, which is characterized by seasonality and the inflow of many types of air masses from different directions, which, combined with the compound terrain, causes climate variability and makes it difficult to accurately predict the weather. For this reason, it is necessary to adapt the model to the prediction of weather conditions and verify its effectiveness on real data. The principal aim of this study is to present the use of a regressive model based on a unidirectional multilayer neural network, also called a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), to predict selected weather indicators for the city of Szczecin in Poland. The forecast of the model we implemented was effective in determining the daily parameters at 96% compliance with the actual measurements for the prediction of the minimum and maximum temperature for the next day and 83.27% for the prediction of atmospheric pressure.

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Section: The Complexity Of Weather Forecasting In Polandmentioning

confidence: 84%

An ANN Model Trained on Regional Data in the Prediction of Particular Weather Conditions

et al. 2021

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A 10-Year Radar-Based Climatology of Mesoscale Convective System Archetypes and Derechos in Poland

Surowiecki

Taszarek

2020

Monthly Weather Review

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In this study a 10-year (2008-2017) radar-based mesoscale convective system (MCS) and derecho climatology for Poland is presented. This is one of the first attempt for a European country to investigate morphological and precipitation archetypes of MCSs as prior studies were mostly based on satellite data. Despite its ubiquity and significance for society, economy, agriculture and water availability, little is known about climatological aspects of MCSs over Central Europe. Our results indicate that MCSs are not rare in Poland as an annual mean of 77 MCSs and 49 days with MCS can be depicted for Poland. Their lifetime ranges typically from 3 to 6 hours with initiation time around afternoon hours (12-14 UTC) and dissipation stage in the evening (19-20 UTC). Most frequent morphological type of MCSs is a broken line (58% of cases), then areal / cluster (25%) and quasi-linear convective system (QLCS; 17%), usually associated with a bow-echo (72% of QLCS). QLCS feature also with the longest lifecycle. Among precipitation archetypes of linear MCSs trailing stratiform (73%) and parallel stratiform (25%) are the most common. MCSs are usually observed from April to September with a peak in mid-July. A majority of MCSs travels from W, SW and S sectors. A total of 16 derecho events were identified (1.5% of all MCS and 9.1% of all QLCS), the majority of them were produced by a warm-season QLCS, while only 4 by a cold season narrow cold-front rainbands. Warm season derechos produced a bigger impact compared to cold season events, even though their damage paths were shorter.

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Diurnal and Seasonal Variability of ERA5 Convective Parameters in Relation to Lightning Flash Rates in Poland

Poręba

Taszarek

Ustrnul

2022

Weather and Forecasting

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The relationship between convective parameters derived from ERA5 and cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes from the PERUN network in Poland was evaluated. All flashes detected between 2002–2019 were divided into intensity categories based on a peak 1-minute CG lightning flash rate and were collocated with proximal profiles from ERA5 to assess their climatological variability. Thunderstorms in Poland are the most frequent in July, between 1400–1600 UTC and over the southeastern parts of the country. The highest median of MUCAPE for CG lightning flash events is from June to August, between 1400–1600 UTC (around 900 J kg−1), whereas patterns in 0–6 km wind shear (DLS) are reversed, with the highest median values during winter and night (around 25 m s−1). The best overlap of MUCAPE and DLS (MUWMAXSHEAR parameter) is in July–August, typically between 1400–2000 UTC with median values of around 850 m2 s−2. Thunderstorms in Poland are the most frequent in MUCAPE below 1000 J kg−1, and DLS between 8–15 m s−1. Along with increasing MUCAPE and DLS, peak CG lightning flash rates increase as well. Compared to DLS, MUCAPE is a more important parameter in forecasting any lightning activity, but when these two are combined together (MUWMAXSHEAR) they are more reliable in distinguishing between thunderstorms producing small and high CG lightning flash rates. Our results also indicate that higher CG lightning flash rates result in thunderstorms more frequently associated with severe weather reports (hail, tornado, wind).

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Forecasting experiences associated with supercells over South-Western Poland on July 7, 2017

Cited by 5 publications

References 40 publications

An ANN Model Trained on Regional Data in the Prediction of Particular Weather Conditions

An ANN Model Trained on Regional Data in the Prediction of Particular Weather Conditions

A 10-Year Radar-Based Climatology of Mesoscale Convective System Archetypes and Derechos in Poland

Diurnal and Seasonal Variability of ERA5 Convective Parameters in Relation to Lightning Flash Rates in Poland

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