Forecasting Future Demand in Two of the Busiest Us Airports Using Simplified Models

Zehawi, Raquim Nihad; Hameed, Ali Hussein; Kareem, Yassir Nashaat A.

doi:10.24237/djes.2016.09409

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…As in many local and international studies, the population is an important factor in air travel demand modeling [22,23]. The aviation demand is highly expected to directly correlate to the population [24,25] either in the middle district or all over the country.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, if the simulated variables do not affect any one of these factors, as in this study in which the air travel passengers have no such effect on either death, birth, in or out-migration, there is no need to introduce them in the model, but only the net growth of the combined population of the four governorates is used. According to the Iraqi Central Statistical Organization population reports, the combined population of the four governorates comprising the middle district in Iraq is steadily fixed around (2.04%) along the past two decades and its strongly expected to keep this way for no less than two more decades to come (25).…”

Section: Population Sub Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Emergence Time Phasing for the Potential New Airports in the Middle District of Iraq

Mohammed¹,

Jomaah²,

Zehawi³

2021

IJDNE

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With the growing demand for air transportation and limited capacity at Baghdad International airport (BIAP), there is a need to increase the capacity of airport systems in the middle district of Iraq. The increased use of secondary airports has been and is expected to be one of the key mechanisms by which future demand is met in congested metropolitan areas. This paper analyzed the factors influencing the emergence of secondary airports in the Iraqi middle district and the dynamics of multi-airport systems. A system dynamics model was developed to simulate the relationship between the core airport in Baghdad and three potential secondary airports, one in each adjacent governorate. The model takes under consideration such characteristics as; capacity, location, proximity to populated communities, and ground transportation services for each airport. the main outcomes of this model are; the passenger's persuasion in an airport, which reflects their propensity to use this particular airport, and the predicted number of annual passengers in each airport. The system dynamics model was consulted twice. The outcomes of the first run facilitated the economic analyses of the secondary airports on which the sequence of the airports emergence was determined, and it also showed that the new airport feasibility is highly affected by the location, due to the influence on the road user cost for passengers, in addition to the capital expenses. The second run of the model helped in predicting the time schedule and interval between an airport emergence and the other. If the new airports have an equal capacity of one million passenger per year, the expected timing for the emergence is in 2023, 2027, and 2032 for the airports in Balad, Habbaniyah, and Baquba respectively.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Population Sub Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emergence Time Phasing for the Potential New Airports in the Middle District of Iraq

Mohammed¹,

Jomaah²,

Zehawi³

2021

IJDNE

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“…The third is created by fusing the first two [10]. Because of the importance of the topic, many researchers have been interested in analyzing and predicting factors impacting air demand: Firstly, Zehawi et al (2016) [11] stated that the most critical variables in projecting passenger volume at two of the busiest American airports, Atlanta International Airport and John F. Kennedy International Airport, are per capita Income and population, both on a national and regional basis. Suryani et al (2010) [12] used a system dynamics approach to research runway extension, passenger terminal capacity, and estimates of air passenger demand.…”

Section: Development Of a Regression Model To Forecast Air Travel Dem...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a Regression Model to Forecast Air Travel Demand at Baghdad International Airport

Albayati

Zehawi

2023

jeasd

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The civil aviation demand forecast is a carefully formed perspective for airport system activities. Its main use is to predict possible needs for the planning and financial management processes for air carriers and civil aviation authorities. It is vital to conduct frequent analyses and projections of demand in order to meet their customers' expectations by balancing supply and demand and staying abreast of the ever-changing aviation industry. The purpose of this paper is to establish a mathematical relationship between the socioeconomic explanatory factors such as (population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), consumption expenditure, rate of exchange, industry, imports, and exports) and activities (passenger movements and aircraft operations) at Baghdad International Airport in order to develop an econometric model. The required data had been collected for the past ten years. Eight models were developed depending on one or more of the explanatory variables using SPSS software, and they were then subjected to cross-comparison to see which model was more robust. According to the findings of the statistics, the gross domestic product, population size, and consumption expenditure are the most appropriate explanatory variables that have a significant impact on these activities, where they had a high R2 and F-statistics value equal to 90% and 73.442, respectively, for the model of air passengers and GDP and 90% and 48.737 for the model of flight operations and GDP.

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“…The SD technique was particularly useful in studying the factors that have a direct effect on demand and forecasting air travel demand by developing a methodical model for future systems [11,[16][17][18][19][20][21][22].…”

Section: Forecasting With System Dynamics "Sd"mentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamic Model for Simulating Aviation Demand: Baghdad International Airport as a Case Study

Albayati¹,

Zehawi²

2022

MMEP

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The aviation authorities have long been impacted by fluctuations in demand, which are often caused by the aviation industry's cyclical nature. It is affected mainly by many endogenous or exogenous variables. Despite that, the airport authorities and air carrier management make significant efforts to deal with fluctuating demand. This paper analyzed the factors influencing demand at Baghdad International Airport, based on the pertinent local socio-economic data such as "population size," "GDP," and "terrorism effect," as well as system-based factors related to aviation activities and airport characteristics for the past ten years, to develop a system dynamics simulation model by which the causes of fluctuation are highlighted in order to predict the magnitude and timing of the increment or decline in an offer to minimize losses to all parties in the airport system. The simulation results demonstrated very high goodness of fit with the actual data, producing R2 values of 0.865 and 0.86 for the departing and arriving passengers, respectively. Even though Iraq's unstable political and economic situation led to the interaction between the different demand drivers, external factors have a bigger effect on the country's need for air travel, causing demand shocks that take a long time to recover from.

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Forecasting Future Demand in Two of the Busiest Us Airports Using Simplified Models

Cited by 3 publications

References 3 publications

Emergence Time Phasing for the Potential New Airports in the Middle District of Iraq

Emergence Time Phasing for the Potential New Airports in the Middle District of Iraq

Development of a Regression Model to Forecast Air Travel Demand at Baghdad International Airport

System Dynamic Model for Simulating Aviation Demand: Baghdad International Airport as a Case Study

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