2013 International Conference on Management Science and Engineering 20th Annual Conference Proceedings 2013
DOI: 10.1109/icmse.2013.6586410
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Forecasting macro-economy based on the term structure of credit spreads: Evidence from China

Abstract: This paper establishes an original methodology to forecast macro-economy based on the term structure of credit spreads. It combines the traditional Svensson model with genetic algorithms to obtain the interest rate term structures of government bonds and corporate bonds, and calculates credit spreads as their differences. The principal component analysis is used to derive three factors of the term structure of credit spreads: level, slope and curvature. Based on these three factors and several macroeconomic va… Show more

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Cited by 1 publication
(3 citation statements)
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“…For other literature on estimation of yield curve models, Ren et al [19], Qing and Huahua [20], Liu et al [21], and Maciel et al [22] deal with estimation of yield curve models for government bonds. In addition, Maciel et al [23] and Rong-xi et al [24] utilize yield curve models for forecasting of interest rates.…”
Section: A Level Factor Representingmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…For other literature on estimation of yield curve models, Ren et al [19], Qing and Huahua [20], Liu et al [21], and Maciel et al [22] deal with estimation of yield curve models for government bonds. In addition, Maciel et al [23] and Rong-xi et al [24] utilize yield curve models for forecasting of interest rates.…”
Section: A Level Factor Representingmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…for ''two-factor flattening'', where X j,t (τ )(j = 1, 2) and X 3,t (τ ) are defined as the equations ( 23) and (24). With Monte Carlo filter, 7 we estimate three factors that simultaneously explain time series of the yield curve and key word groups' frequencies obtained in 2).…”
Section: Steepening and Flattening Factors And News Words Correlated To The Factorsmentioning
confidence: 99%
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