Forecasting Malaysian Property Cycle: An Indicator-Based Approach

Puah, Chin‐Hong; Kuek, Tai-Hock; Arip, Mohammad Affendy; Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling

doi:10.18374/jabe-15-2.1

Cited by 2 publications

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“…The indicator construction procedure was then carried out by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Since then, the construction of a leading indicator for the purpose of forecasting has been growing drastically throughout the study of the business cycle, for example, Puah, Kuek, Arip and Wong (2015), Puah, Kuek, Arip and Wong (2016) and Voon, Puah and Wong (2016). All the studies mentioned have successfully applied the indicator construction procedure to produce a composite leading indicator that portrayed future fluctuations from their cyclical components.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Augmented Measurement of the Housing Affordability Cycles in Malaysia

Voon

Hooy

Puah

2020

MJES

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Malaysia's property market has been going through a difficult phase as the supply of property stocks are excessive with the demand unable to catch up, and hence, many unsold units remaining on the market. The primary aim of this paper is to develop an index-based housing affordability indicator known as the housing affordability leading index (HALI), which is based on the indicator compilation approach founded by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The time-varying Markov switching (TVMS) model is then employed to assess the transition probabilities of the constructed housing affordability indicator. The transition probabilities estimate the prospects of the housing affordability condition and how long it will stay in that particular condition before having any major turnover. As the data employed was monthly data from year 2000 to year 2015, the constructed HALI successfully reflects the prior movements of the non-index housing affordability indicator price to income ratios (PIR). The empirical results show that the HALI has an average leading period of 9.5 months when taking the PIR as a benchmark of coincidence indicator for housing affordability movement.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Augmented Measurement of the Housing Affordability Cycles in Malaysia

Voon

Hooy

Puah

2020

MJES

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“…They showed that the performance of early warning systems can be enhanced using a country-specific approach, while Drehmann and Juselius (2014) employed the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in developing early warning indicators of banking crises for 26 countries. Besides, Voon et al (2016) and Puah et al (2016) utilised the application of warning mechanism for the property cycle in Malaysia while Wong et al (2016) and Soh et al (2019) developed a system to deal with economic crises and tourism cycle, respectively. Additionally, Megersa and Cassimon (2015), Nguyen and Duy (2017), and Puah et al 2017developed an early warning system for Ethiopia, Vietnam, and Thailand, respectively, based on the signals approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Financial Vulnerability in Malaysia: Evidence From the Signals Approach

Kuek

Puah

Arip

2019

RWE

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This paper aims to investigate Malaysia’s vulnerability to a financial crisis. The methodology employed is an extension of the signals approach based on the original work of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999). By studying the period from 2000M1 to 2016M9, we construct a financial vulnerability indicator (FVI) to measure the development of vulnerabilities in the Malaysian financial system. Our empirical findings unveil that the causes of crises are multidimensional. Notably, economic slowdown, decline in stock price and weak exports contain good predictive power in assessing financial vulnerability to a crisis. This study highlights the significance of internal and external macroeconomic conditions in determining a country’s vulnerability.

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Forecasting Malaysian Property Cycle: An Indicator-Based Approach

Cited by 2 publications

References 0 publications

An Augmented Measurement of the Housing Affordability Cycles in Malaysia

An Augmented Measurement of the Housing Affordability Cycles in Malaysia

Predicting Financial Vulnerability in Malaysia: Evidence From the Signals Approach

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