Forecasting municipal solid plastic waste generation and management policy using system dynamics: a case study of Khulna City in Bangladesh

Abstract

A comprehensive analysis of municipal solid plastic waste (MSPW) management while emphasizing plastic pollution severity in coastal cities around the world is mandatory to alleviate the augmenting plastic waste footprint in nature. Thus, decision-makers’ persuasion for numerous management solutions of MSPW flow-control can be met through meditative systematic strategies at the regional level. To forecast solutions focused on systematic policies, an agent-based system dynamics (ASD) model has been developed and simulated from 2023 to 2040 while considering significant knit parameters for MSPW management of Khulna City in Bangladesh. Baseline simulation results show that per-capita plastic waste generation will increase to 11.6 kg by 2040 from 8.92 kg in 2023. Eventually, the landfilled quantity of plastic waste has accumulated to 70,000 tons within 18 years. Moreover, the riverine discharge has increased to 834 tons in 2040 from a baseline quantity of 512 tons in 2023. So the plastic waste footprint index (PWFI) value rises to 24 by 2040. Furthermore, the absence of technological initiatives is responsible for the logarithmic rise of non-recyclable plastic waste to 1.35*1000=1350 tons. Finally, two consecutive policy scenarios with baseline factors such as controlled riverine discharge, increased collection and separation of plastic waste, expansion of recycle business, and locally achievable plastic conversion technologies have been simulated. Therefore, policy 2, with 69% conversion, 80% source separation, and 50% riverine discharge reduction of MSPW, has been found adequate from a sustainability perspective with the lowest PWFI ranges of 3.97 to 1.07 alongside a per-capita MSPW generation of 7.63 to 10 kg from 2023 till 2040. Graphical abstract