Forecasting national team medal totals at the Summer Olympic Games

Forecasting National Medal Totals at the Summer Olympic Games Reconsidered

“…That year, Bernard and Busse (2004), comparing the different econometric methodologies, came up with the conclusion that a Tobit model always delivers better results. Then it became standard to estimate an explanatory model of medal wins distribution with a Tobit (e.g., Andreff, Andreff, and Poupaux, 2008; Forrest, Sanz, and Tena, 2010) and, since Bernard and Busse geared their article toward prediction as well, the Tobit regression turned out to be the hard‐core methodology in forecasting national medal totals.…”

“…The chosen dependent variable is discrete, and drives the authors to estimate a Poisson model and then a negative binomial model, including a Zinb (zero‐inflated negative binomial) model specification rather than a Tobit as in most previous studies. Similar to Forrest, Sanz, and Tena (2010), the authors tested the impact of the level of public expenditure on recreational, cultural, and religious affairs. They found that it is a better indicator of Olympic performances than GDP per capita.…”

Olympic news and attitudes towards the Olympics: a compositional time-series analysis of how sentiment is affected by events

“…In this study, therefore, it is hypothesised that the same sort of impact of news stories could take place during the preparation stage, and consequently the impact of the two most significant Olympic-related stories that occurred during the run-up to Further verification is provided by a number of econometric models of the determination of medal counts that generally, and in some cases significantly, underpredicted Britain's medal total [18]. This paper examines the changes in the stated monthly support, as measured as a scale variable, for hosting the 2012 games over time.…”

Meeting Expectations at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games: Country Potential and Competitiveness

“…The literature contains several references on this topic as previously stated. Some refer to the Winter Games (Kuper and Sterken, ; Andreff, ; Otamendi and Doncel, ; Pfau, ), others to the Summer Games (Forrest, Sanz, and Tena, ; Otamendi and Doncel, ), and others to both editions of the Games (Johnson and Ali, ). We adopted a model that predicts the outcome for each sport.…”

“…Forrest, Sanz, and Tena () included government spending on recreation in order to improve the forecasting performance. In the same vein, Blais‐Morisset, Boucher, and Fortin () not only incorporated the impact of government spending on sport, but also estimated the money needed, in millions of dollars, to obtain an additional medal.…”