Forecasting nitrate evolution in an alluvial aquifer under distinct environmental and climate change scenarios (Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany)

Ortmeyer, Felix; Mas‐Pla, Josep; Wohnlich, Stefan; Banning, Andre

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144463

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…In the future, considerable increases in NO 3 − concentrations and NO 3 − breakthroughs to raw water wells are expected, as this degradation capacity is decreasing and finite (Knowles, 1982;Schwientek et al, 2017). Climate change is expected to enhance this deterioration of water resource quality and quantity (Fleck et al, 2017;Ortmeyer, Mas-Pla, et al, 2021). In addition to a decrease in groundwater recharge and a drop in water levels, Stuart et al (2011) point to possible increasing rates of NO 3 − leaching under future climate scenarios.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Denitrification Induced by Various Organic Substances—Reaction Rates, Microbiology, and Temperature Effect

Ortmeyer

Begerow

Guerreiro

et al. 2021

Water Resources Research

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Nitrate pollution of water resources is a global problem (Almasri, 2007). In some regions, the guideline values of groundwater and drinking water regulations are considerably exceeded in surface waters, but also in groundwater (Carrey et al., 2014). Several European Union member states, including Germany, were penalized by the European Court of Justice for non-compliance with the Nitrate Directive (European Court of Justice, 2010Justice, , 2018. However, further infringements and sanctions are to be expected. This contamination results mainly from anthropogenic N fertilizers used to increase agricultural productivity (Hosono et al., 2013). Excess N enters groundwater as NO 3 − . Due to a geogenic NO 3 − degradation capacity of most aquifers (sulfide minerals and organic C), part of the NO 3 − can be degraded (Rivett et al., 2008). Based on sulfide-S and organic C contents of the aquifer, groundwater recharge and NO 3 − concentration, the remaining time until a NO 3 − breakthrough to drinking water production wells may be calculated (e.g., Ortmeyer, Volkova, et al., 2021). Overall, a link between hydrologic and water quality models is important because including transit times can improve understanding of NO 3 − transport in aquifers (Hrachowitz et al., 2016). In the future, considerable increases in NO 3 − concentrations and NO 3 − breakthroughs to raw water wells are expected, as this degradation capacity is decreasing and finite (Knowles, 1982;Schwientek et al., 2017). Climate change is expected to enhance this deterioration of water resource quality and quantity (Fleck et al., 2017;Ortmeyer, Mas-Pla, et al., 2021). In addition to a decrease in groundwater recharge and a drop in water levels, Stuart et al. (2011) point to possible increasing rates of NO 3 − leaching under future climate scenarios. The thickness of the unsaturated zone is crucial for reaching NO 3 − peaks at the groundwater table (Wang et al., 2012). Nitrate storage in the vadose zone is also important, but often not considered in

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Denitrification Induced by Various Organic Substances—Reaction Rates, Microbiology, and Temperature Effect

Ortmeyer

Begerow

Guerreiro

et al. 2021

Water Resources Research

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“…No studies have been reported on that issue, even though the link between climate change, land use change, and nitrate reduction has been established in previous studies (e.g. Mas-Pla and Menció, 2019;Ortmeyer et al, 2021;Olesen et al, 2019;Sjøeng et al, 2009;Fleck et al, 2017). Ortmeyer et al (2021) used a water balance model combined with a lumped-parameter nitrate mass model for an area in Germany, finding that nitrate concentrations in the groundwater increased towards the end of the century by up to 89 % as a result of changes in temperature, evapotranspiration, and precipitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mas-Pla and Menció, 2019;Ortmeyer et al, 2021;Olesen et al, 2019;Sjøeng et al, 2009;Fleck et al, 2017). Ortmeyer et al (2021) used a water balance model combined with a lumped-parameter nitrate mass model for an area in Germany, finding that nitrate concentrations in the groundwater increased towards the end of the century by up to 89 % as a result of changes in temperature, evapotranspiration, and precipitation. Mas-Pla and Menció (2019) found that climate change, in turn, affects groundwater recharge and, thus, the dilution of nitrate in the subsurface in a study in Catalonia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are maps of nitrate reduction in groundwater altered by climate and land use changes?

Seidenfaden

Sonnenborg

Refsgaard

et al. 2022

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Nitrate reduction maps have been used routinely in northern Europe for calculating the efficiency of remediation measures and the impact of climate change on nitrate leaching. These maps are, therefore, valuable tools for policy analysis and mitigation targeting. Nitrate reduction maps are normally based on output from complex hydrological models and, once generated, are largely assumed constant in time. However, the distribution, magnitude, and efficiency of nitrate reduction cannot necessarily be considered stationary during changing climate and land use as flow paths, nitrate release timing, and their interaction may shift. This study investigates the potential improvement of using transient nitrate reduction maps, compared to a constant nitrate reduction map that is assumed during land use and climate change, both for nitrate loads and the spatial variation in reduction. For this purpose, a crop and soil model (DAISY) was set up to provide nitrate input to a distributed hydrological model (MIKE SHE) for an agricultural catchment in Funen, Denmark. Nitrate reduction maps based on an observed dataset of land use and climate were generated and compared to nitrate reduction maps generated for all combinations of four potential land use change scenarios and four future climate model projections. Nitrate reduction maps were found to be more sensitive to changes in climate, leading to a reduction map change of up to 10 %, while land use changes effects were minor. The study, however, also showed that the reduction maps are products of a range of complex interactions between water fluxes, nitrate use, and timing. What is also important to note is that the choices made for future scenarios, model setup, and assumptions may affect the resulting span in the reduction capability. To account for this uncertainty, multiple approaches, assumptions, and models could be applied for the same area. However, as these models are very time consuming, this is not always a feasible approach in practice. An uncertainty of the order of 10 % on the reduction map may have major impacts on practical water management. It is, therefore, important to acknowledge if such errors are deemed acceptable in relation to the purpose and context of specific water management situations.

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“…Previous studies reporting GW NO 3 distribution considering climate change scenarios mostly used physically based hydrological models that rely solely on the critical hydrological variables that are site-specific, and their applicability is limited to smaller extents. ,− Thus, to have a more inclusive understanding of the impact of climate changes on external and intrinsic environmental factors of groundwater quality in a large study area, a more rigorous and novel approach that relies on in situ observations and scenario considerations is required. With recent computational advancements, the machine learning (ML) approaches are receiving wide applications in hydrologic studies as these models can incorporate site-specific and spatially inclusive variables and generate accurate predictions at various areal extents.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Potential Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Nitrate Pollution and Risk in an Intensely Cultivated Area of South Asia

et al. 2022

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One of the potential impacts of climate change is enhanced groundwater contamination by geogenic and anthropogenic contaminants. Such impacts should be most evident in areas with high land-use change footprint. Here, we provide a novel documentation of the impact on groundwater nitrate (GW NOd 3 ) pollution with and without climate change in one of the most intensely groundwater-irrigated areas of South Asia (northwest India) as a consequence of changes in land use and agricultural practices at present and predicted future times. We assessed the probabilistic risk of GW NOd 3 pollution considering climate changes under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for 2030 and 2040, using a machine learning (Random Forest) framework. We also evaluated variations in GW NOd 3 distribution against a no climate change (NCC) scenario considering 2020 status quo climate conditions. The climate change projections showed that the annual temperatures would rise under both RCPs. The precipitation is predicted to rise by 5% under RCP 8.5 by 2040, while it would decline under RCP 4.5. The predicted scenarios indicate that the areas at high risk of GW NOd 3 pollution will increase to 49 and 50% in 2030 and 66 and 65% in 2040 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. These predictions are higher compared to the NCC condition (43% in 2030 and 60% in 2040). However, the areas at high risk can decrease significantly by 2040 with restricted fertilizer usage, especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The risk maps identified the central, south, and southeastern parts of the study area to be at persistent high risk of GW NOd 3 pollution. The outcomes show that the climate factors may impose a significant influence on the GW NOd 3 pollution, and if fertilizer inputs and land uses are not managed properly, future climate change scenarios can critically impact the groundwater quality in highly agrarian areas.

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Forecasting nitrate evolution in an alluvial aquifer under distinct environmental and climate change scenarios (Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany)

Cited by 12 publications

References 36 publications

Comparison of Denitrification Induced by Various Organic Substances—Reaction Rates, Microbiology, and Temperature Effect

Comparison of Denitrification Induced by Various Organic Substances—Reaction Rates, Microbiology, and Temperature Effect

Are maps of nitrate reduction in groundwater altered by climate and land use changes?

Predicting Potential Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Nitrate Pollution and Risk in an Intensely Cultivated Area of South Asia

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