Forecasting of pre-monsoon flash flood events in the northeastern Bangladesh using coupled hydrometeorological NWP modelling system

Shuvo, Saurav Dey; Rashid, Towhida; Panda, Subrat Kumar; Das, Someshwar; Quadir, Dewan Abdul

doi:10.1007/s00703-021-00831-z

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Moreover, due to heavy rainfall of the upstream region, waters from swollen rivers have been running out very speedily and causing flash floods in the downstream region. Shuvo et al (2021) aptly described the topographic and geomorphological settings of this region; and also, their roles in making this region vulnerable to floods. Again, this region is close to the Meghalayan plateau.…”

Section: Selection Of Dakshin Sreepurmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Impacts of Pre-monsoon Extreme Weather Events and Associated Factors on Rice Yield: A Study on Tahirpur Upazila of Sunamganj District, Bangladesh

Akter

Ahmed

Sumiya

et al. 2023

Dhaka Univ J Earth Env Sci

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Bangladesh, being a geographically vulnerable country experiences a variety of severe weather phenomena and most of them occur during the pre-monsoon season (March-May). This study investigates the occurrence of the pre-monsoon extreme weather events in Sunamganj and their impacts on the rice yield. Sunamganj is one of most vulnerable areas of Bangladesh that experiences almost all types of extreme weather phenomena during pre-monsoon and therefore the assessment of the effect of these hazards on rice yield have been conducted in Dakshin Sreepur union, Tahirpur upazila, Sunamganj. This study has been accomplished by blending the findings of climate data analysis with field investigation. About 13 extreme climate indices related to temperature and rainfall created by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI) were considered to evaluate the correlation between rice yield and extreme weather events in the particular region. The correlation shows that extreme events are not the only factor influencing the rice yields; rather, a few related factors such as socio-economic context, physiographic settings, river bed siltation, construction and management of dams are also affecting the rice production in the study area. As a result, the solutions derived from farmers are important in reducing the detrimental impact of extreme events on rice yield for effective food production. The Dhaka University Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vol. 11(1), 2022: 111-130

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Section: Selection Of Dakshin Sreepurmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Impacts of Pre-monsoon Extreme Weather Events and Associated Factors on Rice Yield: A Study on Tahirpur Upazila of Sunamganj District, Bangladesh

Akter

Ahmed

Sumiya

et al. 2023

Dhaka Univ J Earth Env Sci

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“…Operating on a fixed grid system, the WRF-Hydro model utilizes meteorological data inputs to replicate and analyze intricate land-atmosphere exchange processes, showcasing exceptional adaptability for coupling with numerical weather and climate models and flexible scale conversion. Widespread application extends to modeling large-scale spatial and temporal hydrological processes (Arnault et al 2021), as well as simulating flash flood events within small catchment areas (Camera et al 2020;Shuvo et al 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of flood streamflow sensitivity to precipitation using the WRF-Hydro model in a humid environment

Liu,

Liang,

Qian

et al. 2024

Hydrology Research

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Basin-scale runoff forecasting requires controlling absolute relative errors within 0.2 for accurate predictions. This study examines the sensitivity of simulated flood deviations in frequently flooded humid regions to discrepancies in precipitation driving the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro model. Key parameters of various WRF-Hydro modules are calibrated from 23 flood events between 2003 and 2017. Two experiments were designed with minimized uncertainty in both model and parameterization to explore the sensitivity of streamflow changes to precipitation misestimations, both in total and graded precipitation. The sensitivity of runoff relative errors is more pronounced than that of precipitation relative errors, influenced by the magnitude, variability, and duration of rainfall. During processes involving heavy rainstorm, precipitation absolute relative errors increased by 50%, while runoff absolute relative errors increased by more than 60%. This sensitivity trend is linked to variations in components generated by misestimated precipitation. Runoff relative errors are higher when precipitation is misestimated at high rainfall levels compared to the same misestimation at low rainfall levels. For effective flood simulation and prediction, it is crucial to emphasize the accuracy of precipitation, especially during high rainfall events. Future research will incorporate more realistic precipitation forcing mechanisms and additional metrics for evaluating precipitation forecast.

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“…Shuvo et al [11] analyzed two flash floods due to monsoon events in Bangladesh using a coupled atmospheric-hydrological numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, namely the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Evaluating the goodness of the results with the mean square error and the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion, they found that the NWP model is applicable for flash flood prediction in the basins analyzed, despite the short duration of such events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of a Regionalization Method for Estimating Flash Floods: Cuautepec Basin, Mexico

Arganis

Preciado

Luna

et al. 2023

Water

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A rainfall regionalization method based on variation coefficient was applied with a variant in the construction of flash flood hyetographs with several return periods using the flash flood shape of the historical event that occurred in September 2021 in the Tlalnepantla River basin, Mexico, that caused severe damage to population and its infrastructure in a few hours. The historical flash flood was simulated with a semi-distributed model in the free software HEC-HMS in order to obtain the outflow hydrograph, and the flood plains were obtained with Iber and Hec-Ras 2d software that simulate free surface flow with a two-dimensional analysis. With photographs of the site, it was possible to locate traces of water that were contrasted with they calculated depths; they were concordant. Synthetic design storms were then simulated to estimate their potential consequences on the site.

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Forecasting of pre-monsoon flash flood events in the northeastern Bangladesh using coupled hydrometeorological NWP modelling system

Cited by 6 publications

References 63 publications

Assessing the Impacts of Pre-monsoon Extreme Weather Events and Associated Factors on Rice Yield: A Study on Tahirpur Upazila of Sunamganj District, Bangladesh

Assessing the Impacts of Pre-monsoon Extreme Weather Events and Associated Factors on Rice Yield: A Study on Tahirpur Upazila of Sunamganj District, Bangladesh

Analysis of flood streamflow sensitivity to precipitation using the WRF-Hydro model in a humid environment

Application of a Regionalization Method for Estimating Flash Floods: Cuautepec Basin, Mexico

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