2020
DOI: 10.1007/s12652-020-02641-4
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Forecasting of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in India using SIR model, flatten curve and herd immunity

Abstract: In this paper, we are presenting an epidemiological model for exploring the transmission of outbreaks caused by viral infections. Mathematics and statistics are still at the cutting edge of technology where scientific experts, health facilities, and government deal with infection and disease transmission issues. The model has implicitly applied to COVID-19, a transmittable disease by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The SIR model (Susceptible-Infection-Recovered) used as a context for examining the nature of the pandemic… Show more

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Cited by 20 publications
(14 citation statements)
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“…Currently, India has an enormous number of cases in Asia (Kumar et al 2020a , b ). The transmission mode from human to human-generated is required for social distancing and avoidance in crowded locations (Venkatasen et al 2020 ). In this context, Most governments have closed the schools and institutions, where people cannot be prevented until further notification (UNESCO 2020 ).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Currently, India has an enormous number of cases in Asia (Kumar et al 2020a , b ). The transmission mode from human to human-generated is required for social distancing and avoidance in crowded locations (Venkatasen et al 2020 ). In this context, Most governments have closed the schools and institutions, where people cannot be prevented until further notification (UNESCO 2020 ).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For each individual, S, I, R denote the susceptible, the infected and the recovered (patients who are not infectious anymore). The SIR assumption has been widely adapted to simulate COVID-19 propagation [16,61,60] since reported COVID reinfection cases (e.g [59]) are still rare compared to the total number of reported cases thus far. The SIR model has also been broadly used in networkbased disease simulations via random-walk-based simulations [35].…”
Section: Graph-based Diffusion Modelling and Vaccination Strategies 21 Sir Modelmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…India identified its first case of COVID-19 in a student who came back from Wuhan, China, on January 30, 2020. India imposed its nationwide lockdown with only 500 cases reported at that time [21]. What is contrasting about this country is that even with large population with poor health care infrastructure and crowded areas India reports one of the lowest mortalities and even the cases during initial few months of pandemic.…”
Section: Indiamentioning
confidence: 99%