Forecasting Oilseeds Prices in India: Case of Groundnut

Darekar, A. S.; Reddy, A Amarender A.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3237483

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Darekar & Reddy [4] examines the use of the ARIMA model to forecast the price of groundnut in the major producing states in India during the kharif harvesting season of 2017-18. The authors use the time series data of monthly average prices for the period of 11 years (January 2006 to December 2016) to develop the ARIMA model.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A value in a response time series is predicted by an ARIMA model as a linear mixture of its own prior values. Box and Jenkins (1976) pioneered the ARIMA technique, and ARIMA models are frequently referred to as Box-Jenkins models [4]. The model diagnostics were checked using the minimum of root mean squared error (RMSE), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), and Schwarz Bayesian Information Criteria (SBIC).…”

Section: B Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecasting Groundnut Area, Production and Productivity in Rajasthan, India using ARIMA Model

Bhusanar¹,

Meena

2023

AJAEES

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This paper presents an analysis of the area, production and productivity of groundnut in Rajasthan over the last thirty years and a forecast of these variables using the auto regressing integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Descriptive statistics show that there was a large fluctuation in the lowest and maximum values of area, production, and productivity of groundnut in Rajasthan over the period of last thirty years. The ARIMA model was used to forecast the area, production, and productivity of groundnut in Rajasthan. The parameter estimates of the ARIMA model were used to determine the model fit statistics, including the R-squared value, which indicates how well the model fits the data. The Ljung-Box Q Statistics and the corresponding Sig. indicate that there is no significant autocorrelation in the residuals of the model. Finally, forecasts for 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 are presented, along with their corresponding upper and lower confidence limits. The results indicate that there is a considerable upward trend in area, production, and productivity of groundnut in Rajasthan over the last thirty years. The ARIMA model was found to be successful in forecasting the area, production, and productivity of ground. The findings of this paper can help in the formulation of better policies for groundnut production in Rajasthan.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: B Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Groundnut Area, Production and Productivity in Rajasthan, India using ARIMA Model

Bhusanar¹,

Meena

2023

AJAEES

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“…India is the third biggest rapeseed-mustard maker on the planet and the fourth principal mustard consuming Country [2], possessing the main situation in region and second situation underway after China (Thakur and Sohal., 2014). In India, oilseeds represent 3% to the Gross Public Item and 10 percent to the complete worth of all In India it is become on the 35% region of the all out developed region of the world with a 16 percent share underway [3] horticultural items. India is the biggest maker of oilseeds on the planet and records for around 14% of the worldwide oilseeds region, 7% of the absolute vegetable oil creation and 10 percent of the complete eatable oil utilization.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Popularization of Improved Mustard Production Technology through Frontline Demonstrations in Mahrajganj of Eastern Uttar Pradesh, India

Singh

Chandra

Rao

2023

IJECC

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One of the most important oilseeds crop in India is mustard, which is used to supplement the income of small and marginal farmers. During the year 2020-21 and 2021-22, the present study was carried out at Mahrajganj district of Eastern Uttar Pradesh during the year 2020-21 and 2021-22. The effect appraisal depended on the correlation of recipient and non-recipient respondents regarding expansion in information level of recipient ranchers, degree of reception of further developed mustard creation advances and disposition of recipient ranchers towards FLDs. Development rehearses included under FLD viz., utilization of further developed assortment, line planting, adjusted use of composts, ideal weed administration and control of bug through insect spray - pesticides at monetary limit level showed that the yield of mustard expanded from 62.38 to 74.49 percent over rancher's training during the demonstration period from 2020-21 to 2021-22.

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“…The total amount of rainfall required for presuming operations (preparatory) is 100 mm, for sowing it is 150 mm and for flowering and pod development an evenly seeds of Rice and Wheat in SAARC Countries and the World towards Food Security [8], Mohammed Amir Hamjah et al(2014) for Rice Production Forecasting in Bangladesh: An Application of Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model [9], Muhammad et al(1992) conducted an empirical study of modelling and forecasting time series data of rice production in Pakistan [10], Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman et al(2013), Modelling for Growth and Forecasting of pulse production in Bangladesh [11], Vishwajith K..P et al (2014), Timeseries Modeling and forecasting of pulses production in India [12], Ashwin Darekar et al(2017), Forecasting oilseeds prices in India: Case of Groundnut [13] , Bhola Nath et al(2018) DS , Forecasting Wheat production in India: An ARIMA modelling approach [14] , Pant, D.C. and Pradeep Pal, et al (2004), Comparative Economics of Agro-processing units for Groundnut in Southern Rajasthan [15], Ap Patel, G.N., and N.L. Agarwal et al (1993), Price Behaviour of Groundnut in Gujarat [16], Mohammad Mayazzem Hossain(2017), Comparision of ARIMA and Neural Net Work Model to forecast the jute Production in Bangladesh, Jahingir Nagar University Journal of Science, [17] , also use the ARIMA Model .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Area, Yield and Production of Groundnut Crop: A Comparative Study of Coastal Andhra and Ceded Regions Using- R

Ginka¹,

Sunkara²,

Akhtar³

2019

IJRAT

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This comparative study has been carried out to discuss all investors are excited to know about the trend of groundnut area, yield and production in Coastal Andhra and Ceded Regions (Seemandhra). Now it has 13 districts during 2003-2004 to 2018 (15 years of data) for present comparative analysis of groundnut crop production in Coastal Andhra and Ceded were collected and presented. Based on results collected some conclusions are made about the forecast production of groundnut crop by using ARIMA with Rsoftware.

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Forecasting Oilseeds Prices in India: Case of Groundnut

Cited by 9 publications

References 6 publications

Forecasting Groundnut Area, Production and Productivity in Rajasthan, India using ARIMA Model

Forecasting Groundnut Area, Production and Productivity in Rajasthan, India using ARIMA Model

Popularization of Improved Mustard Production Technology through Frontline Demonstrations in Mahrajganj of Eastern Uttar Pradesh, India

Forecasting Area, Yield and Production of Groundnut Crop: A Comparative Study of Coastal Andhra and Ceded Regions Using- R

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