Forecasting OPEC crude oil production using a variant Multicyclic Hubbert Model

Establishment of a multi-cycle generalized Weng model and its application in forecasts of global oil supply

“…These include the Hubbert, Gaussian and Logistic models (Reynolds 2014;Saraiva et al 2014;Brandt 2007); system simulation methods, which are based on causal relationship of factors, such as the system dynamics method (Tao and Li 2007;Tang et al 2010;Hosseini and Shakouri 2016); and econometric models based on economic theory (Kaufmann 1991;Pindyk and Rubinfeld 1998). The most widely used method is the curve-fitting model (Gallagher 2011;Sorrell and Speirs 2010;Nashawi et al 2010;Ebrahimi and Ghasabani 2015).…”

A cycle‐jumping method for multicyclic Hubbert modeling of resource production

“…As noted by numerous authors, historical production trends of energy resources are generally characterized by more than one production cycle due to external factors such as technological advances or civil unrest (Laherrère, 2000; Reynolds, 2014; Sorrell & Speirs, 2010). To address multiple production cycles in the same time series, Al‐Fattah and Startzman (1999, 2000) proposed multicyclic Hubbert modeling in which distinct Hubbert cycles are added together to model variability in production, which we term here as “cycle‐adding.” Some variations have been used to better fit the production data, such as incorporating an additional parameter to widen and/or narrow the peaks within the individual curves characterizing their models (Ebrahimi & Ghasabani, 2015; Maggio & Cacciola, 2009, 2012; Saraiva et al, 2014). While the cycle‐adding method offers a quantitative way of addressing temporal factors affecting production curves, it fails to reasonably address the transition of one cycle to another.…”

“…asymmetric curve, cycle-adding, cycle-jumping, Hubbert modeling, multicycle, transition width, transition year 1 | INTRODUCTION Modeling of energy resource production with different types of bell-shaped curves has been the central purpose of many studies that attempted to predict the timing of peak production and/or ultimately recoverable resources (URR; Campbell & Laherrère, 1998;Ebrahimi & Ghasabani, 2015;Maggio & Cacciola, 2009, 2012Nashawi et al, 2010;Reaver & Khare, 2014;Saraiva et al, 2014;Wang et al, 2018). Hubbert modeling, developed by and named after geophysicist Marion K. Hubbert, is the most widely used method for modeling historical energy resource production and subsequent forecasting by extrapolation (Maggio & Cacciola, 2009;.…”

Study on small molecular organic compounds pyrolysed from rubber seed oil and its sodium soap

“…Such petrochemicals provide useful organic precursors for a wide range of industries such as plastics, synthetic rubber, synthetic clothing, pharmaceuticals, solvents, lubricants, detergents, adhesives, surface coatings, agrochemicals, artificial colours and flavours. However, the origin of petrochemicals is fossil fuels which are a non-renewable resource currently in the declining phase of use (Hubbert 1956; Mohsen and Nahid 2015). …”