Forecasting Price Direction, Hedging and Spread Options in Oil Volatility

Abstract

Abstract:The energy market aims to manage risks associated with prices and volatility of the asset. It is a capital intensive market, rippled with a range of chaotic, complex and dynamic interaction among its supply and demand derivatives. Models help users forecast such interactions, to provide investors with empirical evidence of the price direction. Evolutionary modeling is an art, whose science seeks to analyze input data and yield an optimal, complete solution for which conventional methods yield a corresponding, non-cost effective solution. Its solutions are tractable, robust and low-cost with a tolerance of ambiguity, uncertainty and noise as applied to its input. Our study aims to predict the OPEC Oil market with data collected over the period.