Forecasting product sales with a stochastic Bass model

Grasman, J.; Kornelis, M.

doi:10.1186/s13362-019-0059-6

Cited by 14 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Massiani and Gohs studied the Bass model coefficients to predict the diffusion of innovative products [10]. Glassman and Kornelis used a random Bass model to predict product sales [11]. Mitra called for timely forecasts at the takeoff stage by using appropriate estimation techniques for the Bass model in the context of subsistence markets [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maximizing the Influence of the Innovative Products Diffusion considering Advertisement and Promotion Strategies

Huo

et al. 2021

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

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With the acceleration of product updates and the intensification of product competition, product market strategies become the primary consideration for the enterprises, and the advertisement and promotion strategies are considered the two important strategies implemented by enterprises. This paper considers the enterprises of similar products and substitute, their formation of a competition between traditional products and innovative products, and establishes a mixed node-level information diffusion model to describe the dynamic product diffusion process with complex network theories. We implement advertising strategies for potential buyers who have not obtained product information and implement promotional strategies for those who have obtained product information. In accordance with Pontryagin maximization principle, we seek the best strategy to maximize the impact of innovative products and use numerical calculations to simulate the diffusion state of products. We found that the advertisement strategies play a decisive role in the marketing of innovative products. If product promotion strategies are added, the spread of innovative products will be more effective and more influential.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maximizing the Influence of the Innovative Products Diffusion considering Advertisement and Promotion Strategies

Huo

et al. 2021

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society

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“…However, the discrete Bass model can be applied only if a discrete equation with exact solution is derived. Recently, Grasman and Kornelis estimated the parameters of the Bass model using the numerical solution of the Bass equation, so discrete data of future sales can be obtained from the fitted model for the purpose of stock management (Grasman & Kornelis, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Novel Optimization-Based Parameter Estimation Method for the Bass Diffusion Model

Liang

2021

Sage Open

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The Bass model is the most popular model for forecasting the diffusion process of a new product. However, the controlling parameters in it are unknown in practice and need to be determined in advance. Currently, the estimation of the controlling parameters has been approached by various techniques. In this case, a novel optimization-based parameter estimation (OPE) method for the Bass model is proposed in the theoretical framework of system dynamics ( SD). To do this, the SD model of the Bass differential equation is first established and then the corresponding optimization mathematical model is formulated by introducing the controlling parameters as design variable and the discrepancy of the adopter function to the reference value as objective function. Using the VENSIM software, the present SD optimization model is solved, and its effectiveness and accuracy are demonstrated by two examples: one involves the exact solution and another is related to the actual user diffusion problem from Chinese Mobile. The results show that the present OPE method can produce higher predicting accuracy of the controlling parameters than the nonlinear weighted least squares method and the genetic algorithms. Moreover, the reliability interval of the estimated parameters and the goodness of fitting of the optimal results are given as well to further demonstrate the accuracy of the present OPE method.

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“…forecast with data of similar products, there is no feasible method of product similarity evaluation and weight measurement proposed Based on the existing studies, this paper, with a focus on the issues in the forecasting of fast fashion clothing, proposes an improved Bass model for it. Although the Bass model has been explored and applied to product marketing by some scholars (Grasman and Kornelis, 2019;Tashiro, 2016), it has not been utilised in clothing sales or management. Compared to existing forecasting models, the model proposed by the paper conducts quantitative evaluation of a similar nature, and takes the historical sales data of similar clothing in a different manner, in order to ensure accuracy in reference to the data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A demand forecasting model based on the improved Bass model for fast fashion clothing

Zhou

Jian-fei

Wang

et al. 2020

IJCST

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PurposeThis paper examines the problem of lack of historical data and inadequate consideration of factors influencing demand in the forecasting of demand for fast fashion clothing and proposes an improved Bass model for the forecasting of such a demand and the demand for new clothing products.Design/methodology/approachFrom the perspective of how to solve the lack of data and improve the precision of the clothing demand forecast, this paper studies the measurement of clothing similarity and the addition of demand impact factors. Using the fuzzy clustering–rough set method, the degree of resemblance of clothing is determined, which provides a basis for the scientific utilisation of historical data of similar clothing to forecast the demand for new clothing. Besides, combining the influence of consumer preferences and seasonality on demand forecasting, an improved Bass model for a fast fashion clothing demand forecast is proposed. Finally, with a forecasting example of demand for clothing, this study also tests the validity of the method.FindingsThe objective measurement method of clothing similarity in this paper solves the problem of the difficult forecasting of demand for fast fashion clothing due to a lack of sales data at the preliminary stage of the clothing launch. The improved Bass model combines, comprehensively, consumer preferences and seasonality and enhances the forecast precision of demand for fast fashion clothing.Originality/valueThe paper puts forward a scientific, quantitative method for the forecasting of new clothing products using historical sales data of similar clothing, thus solving the problem of lack of sales data of the fashion.

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Forecasting product sales with a stochastic Bass model

Cited by 14 publications

References 15 publications

Maximizing the Influence of the Innovative Products Diffusion considering Advertisement and Promotion Strategies

Maximizing the Influence of the Innovative Products Diffusion considering Advertisement and Promotion Strategies

Novel Optimization-Based Parameter Estimation Method for the Bass Diffusion Model

A demand forecasting model based on the improved Bass model for fast fashion clothing

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