Forecasting renewable energy production in the US

Abstract

Purpose -This paper aims to present a forecast for renewable energy production in the USA. Growth curves are used to conduct the forecasts.Design/methodology/approach -The analysis is based upon a literature review, supplemented by collection of secondary data. The study then focuses on applying the Pearl growth curve.Findings -The authors' results show that biomass energy production is growing the fastest followed by geothermal and wind. Additionally, the forecast for solar energy production shows little to no growth over the next two decades.Research limitations/implications -If the US government hopes to achieve its goals in renewable energy, considerable funding and incentives will have to be put forth to accelerate the growth of renewable energy. Since the biomass technology is already growing nicely it makes sense to put the additional resources behind the other three technologies to close the 10.3 percent gap being forecasted. The government also needs to put more funding into dual renewable plants such as wind or solar combines with pumped hydro, this will ensure environmental and reliability are both maintained. Finally, for renewable energies to be competitive in the long term, considerable research needs to go into driving down the cost so there is not a need for subsidies.Originality/value -This study provides value in providing a forecast for expected future growth for renewable energy sources.

Forecasting technology success based on patent data

“…The growth curve, also called an S-curve, can be considered one of the most popular methods for TF. The growth curve was conducted for data storage technologies (Daim et al, 2008), renewable energy production (Daim et al, 2012), and 20 emerging technologies under the "Machine and Materials" category (Bengisu and Nekhili, 2006).…”

Evaluating Renewable Energy Sustainability by Composite Index

“…They appreciated that most of China's renewable energy technologies are still in the transition from research and development to industrial production. Regarding the production of renewable energy in the US, Daim et al [14] show that biomass-based energy production is rising the fastest, followed by geothermal and wind power. In addition, the forecasts for solar energy production are underperforming over the next two decades.…”

“…Renewable energy issues have a particular focus on the past decade. A number of researchers have given great importance to the way this segment develops in their own countries [13,14]. Singh [15] attempted to identify factors responsible for the slow development of renewable energy sector in the Pacific Islands and to suggest ways to overcome them.…”

Mixed Generation Sensitivity Analysis: An Optimal Scenario Study

“…Land and water masses are heated by the sun during the day and cooled at night at various speeds. Wind gusts are produced by the warm air expansion and subsequently rise as cool air takes place (Daim et al, 2012). Consequently, the wind turbine generators are producing surplus energy with no place to store it.…”

“…The type III units were evidently not used as generators from 12 AM-9 AM as pumping operations assumed a major role in the period. The dual renewable resources (wind or solar) combined with hydroelectric pumping operations ensures that the environmental and reliability aspects are maintained (Daim, et al, 2012). Interestingly enough, five of the type III units were started in the 6 AM-9 AM time block to assist with the load pick-up, and an additional generator of the type II variety was started in the 3 PM-6 PM time slot to accommodate the evening load pick-up.…”