Forecasting Service Quality Dynamics Based on Integrated Method with GM(1,1) Model and Markov Chain

Abstract

Dynamics of quality attributes derived from Kano model has been recognized as one of the most interesting and fruitful developments of attractive quality theory. The purpose of this study is to propose an integrated method with GM(1,1) model and Markov chain to forecast the dynamics of service quality attributes with limited data and explore the existence of the alternative life cycles. Further, an empirical study of the express delivery industry in China is conducted at four points of time (the year of 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2013) to verify the feasibility of the method. This study not only provides a quantitative method for forecasting the dynamics of service quality attributes with limited information, but also gives evidence for the existence of alternative life cycles of service quality attributes.

A novel fractional-order accumulation GMP(1,1) model and its application

“…According to the Grey System Theory (GST) [42,43,44,45], Model (11) is actually the whitening of the grey system Model (9) combined with Definition 4, similar to the whitening process of the GMP(1,1) model [13], and the solution of Model (11) is the solution of the grey Model (9), which is so-called white box [46]. Then, for the parameter (a, b) T in Model (9), in the traditional grey prediction process, the original sequence value x (r−1)…”

“…The grey model initiative under Deng [1] combines differential equations and difference equations through the first-order accumulated generating operation (1-AGO), named as GM (1,1) model. Owing to its good performance on small sample uncertainty analysis and forecasting [2,3,4,5], this model is widely used in forecasting fuel production [6], hazard risks of typhoons [7] or tropical cyclones [8], the Chinese express delivery industry [9], the hydropower production [10] and the number of short-term passengers [11]. Grey system research scholars have summarized specific conditions to ensure model accuracy.…”