2010
DOI: 10.1007/s11273-010-9178-y
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Forecasting sites of future coastal marsh loss using topographical relationships and logistic regression

Abstract: The last two assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict that rates of sea level rise will begin to accelerate by c. 2030-2040 CE. Considering that many marsh systems are already under threat from existing sea level trends, a dramatic upswing in rate only a few decades away poses critical questions about what the future may hold for these marshes (and those yet to manifest sea level impacts) requires coast-wide assessments. Extrapolations of detailed historical trends traditiona… Show more

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Cited by 16 publications
(27 citation statements)
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“…Although there is a rapidly growing understanding of the general environmental conditions under which coastal marsh submergence is likely to occur (e.g. Kirwan et al, 2010), the spatial patterns of marsh break-up have been comparatively poorly studied (e.g., Kearney and Rogers, 2010). Furthermore, it may be deduced from this study that complex interactions between marsh break-up and increased marsh flooding may be expected.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 87%
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“…Although there is a rapidly growing understanding of the general environmental conditions under which coastal marsh submergence is likely to occur (e.g. Kirwan et al, 2010), the spatial patterns of marsh break-up have been comparatively poorly studied (e.g., Kearney and Rogers, 2010). Furthermore, it may be deduced from this study that complex interactions between marsh break-up and increased marsh flooding may be expected.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 87%
“…Existing studies that quantified the spatial patterns of tidal marsh die-off are relatively scarce (e.g., Kearney and Rogers, 2010), but suggest that marsh die-off preferentially occurs in lower marsh portions (depressions) that are located further away from channels, while the relatively higher located natural levees closer to the channels, are less vulnerable to vegetation die-off. Our study demonstrates that such a pattern of marsh die-off, which is concentrated at inner marsh locations further away and disconnected from the tidal channels (e.g.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Satellite remote sensing provides global continuous data for decades now. Consequently, these techniques now allow for spatial detection of wetland habitat over time at the (inter-) annual and the climate-scale and thus complement estimates from theoretical modeling and empirical, site-specific studies [21][22][23][24]. Nevertheless, thematic mapping of wetlands are also often static in time, at coarse spatial resolution or performed on a local scale [25].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Such a model would not be able to account for the ability of some wetland communities, such as mangroves, to keep pace with SLR (also McKee et al, 2007; or indeed to lose the ability to adapt under worst case scenarios. A shift towards processbased simulations is thus recommended (although see Kearney & Rogers, 2010).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%