Forecasting solar wind structures and shock arrival times using an ensemble of models

Fry, C. D.; Dryer, M.; Smith, Z.; Sun, W.; Deehr, C. S.; Akasofu, S.‐I.

doi:10.1029/2002ja009474

Cited by 149 publications

(287 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The WSA model has been currently used in the kinematic HAFv.2 model (Fry et al 2003;Smith et al 2009) to obtain the solar wind background. Furthermore, Roussev et al (2003) and Cohen et al (2007) used the WSA model as an input to present an improved 3D MHD study for the solar wind, where the processes of turbulent heating in the solar wind are characterized by a varied polytropic index.…”

Section: ∇T ·Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

THREE-DIMENSIONAL SOLARWINDMODELING FROM THE SUN TO EARTH BY A SIP-CESE MHD MODEL WITH A SIX-COMPONENT GRID

Feng

Yang

Cui

et al. 2010

ApJ

174

144

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The objective of this paper is to explore the application of a six-component overset grid to solar wind simulation with a three-dimensional (3D) Solar-InterPlanetary Conservation Element/Solution Element MHD model. The essential focus of our numerical model is devoted to dealing with: (1) the singularity and mesh convergence near the poles via the use of the six-component grid system, (2) the ∇ · B constraint error via an easy-to-use cleaning procedure by a fast multigrid Poisson solver, (3) the Courant-Friedrichs-Levy number disparity via the Courant-number insensitive method, (4) the time integration by multiple time stepping, and (5) the time-dependent boundary condition at the subsonic region by limiting the mass flux escaping through the solar surface. In order to produce fast and slow plasma streams of the solar wind, we include the volumetric heating source terms and momentum addition by involving the topological effect of the magnetic field expansion factor f S and the minimum angular distance θ b (at the photosphere) between an open field foot point and its nearest coronal hole boundary. These considerations can help us easily code the existing program, conveniently carry out the parallel implementation, efficiently shorten the computation time, greatly enhance the accuracy of the numerical solution, and reasonably produce the structured solar wind. The numerical study for the 3D steady-state background solar wind during Carrington rotation 1911 from the Sun to Earth is chosen to show the above-mentioned merits. Our numerical results have demonstrated overall good agreements in the solar corona with the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite and at 1 AU with WIND observations.

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Section: ∇T ·Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

THREE-DIMENSIONAL SOLARWINDMODELING FROM THE SUN TO EARTH BY A SIP-CESE MHD MODEL WITH A SIX-COMPONENT GRID

Feng

Yang

Cui

et al. 2010

ApJ

174

144

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“…They also employed a computationally nonintensive "quick-look" 3-D kinematic model (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry: HAFv.2). This latter model has also been used for real time space weather objectives [Fry et al, 2001[Fry et al, , 2003Dryer et al, 2004;McKenna-Lawlor et al, 2006;Smith et al, 2009bSmith et al, , 2009a.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of pickup protons, from interstellar neutral hydrogen, on the propagation of interplanetary shocks from the Halloween 2003 solar events to ACE and Ulysses: A 3-D MHD modeling study

et al. 2011

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[1] We describe our 3-D, time-dependent, MHD solar wind model that we recently modified to include the physics of pickup protons from interstellar neutral hydrogen. The model has a time-dependent lower boundary condition, at 0.1 AU, that is driven by source surface map files through an empirical interface module. We describe the empirical interface and its parameter tuning to maximize model agreement with background (quiet) solar wind observations at ACE. We then give results of a simulation study of the famous Halloween 2003 series of solar events. We began with shock inputs from the Fearless Forecast real-time shock arrival prediction study, and then we iteratively adjusted input shock speeds to obtain agreement between observed and simulated shock arrival times at ACE. We then extended the model grid to 5.5 AU and compared those simulation results with Ulysses observations at 5.2 AU. Next we undertook the more difficult tuning of shock speeds and locations to get matching shock arrival times at both ACE and Ulysses. Then we ran this last case again with neutral hydrogen density set to zero, to identify the effect of pickup ions. We show that the speed of interplanetary shocks propagating from the Sun to Ulysses is reduced by the effects of pickup protons. We plan to make further improvements to the model as we continue our benchmarking process to 10 AU, comparing our results with Cassini observations, and eventually on to 100 AU, comparing our results with Voyager 1 and 2 observations.

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“…STEREO observations could provide forecasting of the timing and potential fluxes at least 24 h in advance, with better precision than for the earlier cases (Webb et al 2009). Webb et al (2009) have discussed the prediction of ICMEs using SMEI observations and the HAFv2 (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2) 3-D solar wind model (Hakamada and Akasofu 1982;Fry et al 2001Fry et al , 2003. They showed that the model could predict the ICME properties with reasonable accuracy.…”

Section: Predictability Of Space Weathermentioning

confidence: 99%

Space Weather: Physics, Effects and Predictability

2010

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The time varying conditions in the near-Earth space environment that may affect space-borne or ground-based technological systems and may endanger human health or life are referred to as space weather. Space weather effects arise from the dynamic and highly variable conditions in the geospace environment starting from explosive events on the Sun (solar flares), Coronal Mass Ejections near the Sun in the interplanetary medium, and various energetic effects in the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system. As the utilization of space has become part of our everyday lives, and as our lives have become increasingly dependent on technological systems vulnerable to the space weather influences, the understanding and prediction of hazards posed by these active solar events have grown in importance. In this paper, we review the processes of the Sun-Earth interactions, the dynamic conditions within the magnetosphere, and the predictability of space weather effects on radio waves, satellites and ground-based technological systems today.

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Forecasting solar wind structures and shock arrival times using an ensemble of models

Cited by 149 publications

References 30 publications

THREE-DIMENSIONAL SOLARWINDMODELING FROM THE SUN TO EARTH BY A SIP-CESE MHD MODEL WITH A SIX-COMPONENT GRID

THREE-DIMENSIONAL SOLARWINDMODELING FROM THE SUN TO EARTH BY A SIP-CESE MHD MODEL WITH A SIX-COMPONENT GRID

The influence of pickup protons, from interstellar neutral hydrogen, on the propagation of interplanetary shocks from the Halloween 2003 solar events to ACE and Ulysses: A 3-D MHD modeling study

Space Weather: Physics, Effects and Predictability

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