Forecasting Stock Price Using Armax-Garchx Model During The Covid-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic, which was proclaimed by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 2020, has impacted stock risk on the capital market. Stock price forecasting can be used to provide future stock projection prices in order to reduce risk. The ARMA GARCH model and its development model can forecast stock prices by incorporating exogenous factors such as the ARMAX GARCH, ARMA GARCHX, and ARMAX GARCHX models. PT Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk's stock price is analyzed in this study, along with the exogenous factors of total daily positive cases and total daily fatalities cases of Covid-19 from March 16, 2020, to January 31, 2022.The results of several models show that based on MAPE value the ARMAX GARCH model has better accuracy in forecasting stock price.

The Influence of Critical Reasoning, Independece, and Resilience to Adversity on The Numeracy Competence of 5th Grade Students in Cluster IV Kerambitan

“…In independent learning, students will try to understand the lesson's content themselves; if they have difficulty, students discuss it with the teacher. (Parwati et al, 2023) states that in independent learning, students must be accustomed to applying active and participatory learning methods to develop each self and not be bound by the presence of teachers and classmates. Students can determine directions, plans, resources, and decisions in independent learning to achieve academic goals.…”