Forecasting Technology Adoption Behaviour and Agricultural Production Growth

Abstract

In this paper, we proposed a simple mathematical model for farmers in the Ranchi district to adopt and implement agricultural technologies. We used the Fisher-Pry model, which is a very effective model in the study of technological adoption. The model's output is a Sigmoid curve, or S-shaped curve, that develops exponentially at first, then approximately linearly, and lastly asymptotically. We have studied the models of technology spread using a basic case study and brought in a real-world situation. Mathematically, it is possible to predict that adoption will rise to the number m/2 when 50% of the farmers have adopted the technology, after which it will slow down. In a real-life situation, the point of inflection might occur before or after m/2.We also collected data on some of the food crops, and net irrigated area of Ranchi district from 2011 to 2020, and evaluated it graphically/mathematically. We examined the advantages of technology in agriculture using utility functions, by employing basic scenarios and selecting between different technologies for adoption