Forecasting the 2022 French Presidential Election: From a Left–Right Logic to the Quadripolarization of Politics

Forecasting the 2022 French Presidential Election with a SUR Regionalized Model

“… 3. Our modeling uses the same classification as Jérôme, Mongrain, and Nadeau (2022) (see the online appendix). …”

Introduction to Forecasting the 2022 French Presidential Election

“…The article by Jérôme-Speziari and Bélanger (2022) follows the tradition of disaggregated-voting analysis on a regional basis but also offers a seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) model. Innovating on two levels, the efforts of Jérôme, Mongrain, and Nadeau (2022) develop a “synthetic” model to predict the outcomes of French presidential elections (combining it with the SUR approach). In a pioneering turn, Dufresne, Jérôme, Lewis-Beck, Murr, and Savoie (2022) test the utility of citizen forecasting whereby respondents provide voter expectations rather than voter intentions.…”