Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach

Abstract

BackgroundIn Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians.MethodWe constructed a forecasting model using a system dynamics approach. Forecasting the number of physician was performed for all clinical physician and OB/GYN specialists. Moreover, we conducted evaluation of sufficiency for the number of physicians and sensitivity analysis.Result & conclusionAs a result, it was forecast that the number of physicians would increase during 2008–2030 and the shortage would resolve at 2026 for all clinical physicians. However, the shortage would not resolve for the period covered. This suggests a need for measures for reconsidering the allocation system of new entry physicians to resolve maldistribution between medical departments, in addition, for increasing the overall number of clinical physicians.

Satisfaction of a new telephone consultation service for prenatal and postnatal health care

“…First, Japan now faces serious medical and social problems in health policy . Rural areas have specifically a high demand for obstetric care services, because of a shortage of obstetricians . As a result, there are medically underserved areas, so called non‐physician disadvantaged community and subsequent poor social determinants of health, which shapes the disparities in access to primary care for prenatal and postnatal women in rural areas.…”

“…[16][17][18] Rural areas have specifically a high demand for obstetric care services, because of a shortage of obstetricians. 19,20 As a result, there are medically underserved areas, so called nonphysician disadvantaged community and subsequent poor social determinants of health, which shapes the disparities in access to primary care for prenatal and postnatal women in rural areas. A wide variety of community health workers can improve health care and health outcomes, and provide social support to pregnant women, childbearing women, and women with a variety of chronic conditions such as mental illness, hypertension, or infectious diseases.…”

Effect of the number of request calls on the time from call to hospital arrival: a cross-sectional study of an ambulance record database in Nara prefecture, Japan

“…As a result, this places an additional burden on physicians. Owing to the shortage of physicians in Japan,41 there is a need for more effective posting of physicians and efficient working systems.…”

A System Dynamics Analysis of Malaysian Healthcare Resources

“…Examples of the studies are healthcare affordability in Singapore by Ng et al [4] 1 , the potential medical demand in China by Wang et al [5], and modeling the sufficiency of doctors in Japan and Spain by Ishikawa et al [6], Barber and López-Valcárcel [7] respectively.…”

“…Bed occupancy rate = (6) "when supply of healthcare resources available adequately, and population being able to access it". Accumulated bed capacity = Adjustment time of bed capacity x gap of required and available capacity x bed turnover rate (8) Figure 4 Bed capacity availability sub-model…”