Forecasting the burden of advanced knee osteoarthritis over a 10-year period in a cohort of 60–64 year-old US adults

Abstract

Objective To forecast the burden of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA) in the elderly US population over a 10-year horizon. Design Using a computer simulation model of the natural history and management of knee OA combined with population-based data from the 2008 US Census we projected the 10-year burden of knee OA among persons 60–64 years of age. Knee OA incidence and progression rates were derived from national cohorts and calibrated to published literature. Results Using national data we estimated that 13% of 14,338,292 adults 60–64 years old have prevalent symptomatic, radiographic knee OA. Among persons surviving the next decade, 20% will have symptomatic advanced (Kellgren-Lawrence [K-L] grade 3) or end-stage (K-L 4) knee OA. Prevalence of advanced knee OA will range from 10% among non-obese to 35% among obese persons. Our estimates show that a more sensitive imaging tool, such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), may increase the number OA cases diagnosed by up to 94% assuming that 50% of all ‘pre-radiographic knee OA’ (K-L 1) has some evidence of cartilage degeneration seen on MRI. Conclusions Projecting new and advanced cases of knee OA among persons aged 60–64 years over the next decade creates a benchmark that can be used to evaluate population-based benefits of future disease-modifying OA drugs that are currently undergoing testing at various stages.

Lateral Wedge Insoles for Reducing Biomechanical Risk Factors for Medial Knee Osteoarthritis Progression: A Systematic Review and Meta‐Analysis

“…Prescription based on biomechanical response and use of insoles only in individuals who show reductions in knee joint loading (biomechanical phenotypes) appears more appropriate to increase the likelihood of a favorable long-term response regarding the attenuation of structural changes. This would limit their application and benefit to a smaller number of individuals, but is still likely to be significant considering the overall prevalence of knee OA and projected rise due to population ageing and rising obesity levels (49). Further research investigating targeted use of lateral wedge insoles in biomechanical phenotypes likely to benefit is required to fully interrogate their potential to limit disease progression.…”

Estimating the Burden of Total Knee Replacement in the United States

“…The OAPol Model is a validated, state transition, computer simulation model of the natural history of knee osteoarthritis 18,19 . ''State transition'' implies that the natural history and outcomes of clinical management of knee osteoarthritis are characterized as a series of annual transitions between health states.…”

Association between Wnt inhibitory factor-1 expression levels in articular cartilage and the disease severity of patients with osteoarthritis of the knee

“…Worldwide, the World Health Organization estimates that ~10% of men and 18% of women aged >60 years have symptomatic OA, 80% of which suffer from movement limitations (2). OA imposes a substantial burden of disease at the global, regional and individual levels, and this is likely to increase with time due to an aging world population with increasing rates of obesity (3)(4)(5). Although previous clinical studies on OA have been performed, the etiology of this disease is yet to be elucidated (6).…”