Forecasting the Final Cost of Iraqi Public School Projects Using Regression Analysis

Khaled, Zeyad S. M.; Frayyeh, Qais J.; Aswed, Gafel Kareem

doi:10.30684/etj.2015.101915

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…The data used in this research paper was collected from the Directorate of Highways in Iraq, the Directorate of Diyala Highways in particular for highway projects. The data included 25 completed projects, With regard to the construction phase and the consequent conditions in construction projects in general and highway projects in particular, which can lead to risks, the most important of which is mismanagement or inefficiency, and this will appear clearly in the additional cost or defect in work scheduling and the length of the implementation period, Two models were made for the cost and time of highway projects and based on the same data the date include dependent variables final cost (FC) and the final duration (FD) and the independent variables, change order cost (OC), bid duration (BD), bid cost (BC), change order duration (OD), final duration (FD), finish time(FT), start time (ST) and number of order items (NO.OI) [19] as show in Table 1 and the size of the investigated projects as shown in Table 2 to find out the impact of additional costs and durations resulting from a risk, and change orders were used to respond to this risk on the final cost and final time of the highway projects.Backtracking technology is adopted to analyze historical cost and time data in order to provide a robust model to aid in budgeting and cost estimation as well as time before work begins. Statistical Package for Social Sciences SPSS and MS Excel are used to develop a suitable model.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This analysis shows the correlation matrix between the independent variables and the dependent variable and between them and each other. When examining correlations between dependent variables and independent variables, the correlation coefficient's significance level should be equal to or lower than the P-value (0.01, 0.05), while when examining correlations between two independent variables, the correlation coefficient's value should be less than 0.7 in order to prevent lowering prediction accuracy [19].…”

Section: Correlation Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecasting Final Cost and Time Rates of Highway Construction Projects in Iraq Using Regression Analysis

Dhuha M. Dawood,

Abd,

Zehawi

2023

DJES

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The construction process is fraught with risks and uncertainties, which grow in proportion to the size and complexity of the project. The project is considered successful if it is completed within the specified time and cost and with the required quality standards. The time and cost overrun of building projects and highways is a critical issue because of the great risks that result from it, which affect the project completion process and sometimes put it to a halt. In this paper, an attempt was made to predict the final cost rate and final time rate of such projects before starting work, using the technique of reverse elimination regression analysis. The study covers a group of highway projects in Diyala Governorate, where the records of (25) projects that were completed during (2012-2021) were used to develop and validate the regression model. Based on the experts' convictions, there are nine factors that are considered the most influential on the final cost and final time. Hence they are used as input parameters for the form. These factors are; bid cost, bid duration, change order cost, change order duration, final cost, and final duration, no. of change order, start time and final time. It was found that the developed regression model has the ability to predict the final cost rate (FCR) and final duration rate (FDR) for highway projects as outputs with very high goodness of fit and coefficient determination ( ) of (98%) and (96%) for FCR and FDR respective.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Correlation Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Final Cost and Time Rates of Highway Construction Projects in Iraq Using Regression Analysis

Dhuha M. Dawood,

Abd,

Zehawi

2023

DJES

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“…(Pourrostam and Ismail) [5] identified the main causes and consequences of delay in Iranian construction projects and identified the (10) most important causes of delay out of a list of (27) different causes of delay that contribute to (6) different effects of delay. (Jahanger) [6] studied the causes of delay in construction projects in Baghdad city and specify the most important causes of delay through a questionnaire that contained (58) causes of delay which were categorized in (10) groups of delay causes. (Bekr) [7] identified (65) main causes of delay in public works in Iraq and combined them into four groups according to their source.…”

Section: Previous Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The statistical measures that can be used to measure the performance of prediction models include the following (Khaled, et al) [10] The MAPE and percentage RMSE as measures of the average error are applied only to the independent test data. The results of these statistical parameters for model (A) are given in Table (7), where the MAPE and Average Accuracy Percentage generated by NLR model (A) are found to be (2.21%) and (97.79%) respectively.…”

Section: Models Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Delivery Time of Public School Building Projects Using Nonlinear Regression

Khaled¹,

Ali²,

Hassan³

2016

ETJ

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The delay in delivering public school building projects in Iraq is one of the major problems that face the construction of new school buildings. In order to enable the concerned governmental agencies to predict the expected delivery time of these projects at the time of contract assignment, two forecasting models are developed to aid in this matter. After reviewing a wide range of literature to determine the most common causes of delay, a questionnaire is distributed to owners, consultants, supervising engineers and contractors engaged in public school building projects. The results of the questionnaire were analyzed using the relative importance index. Nine most important causes of delay in public school building projects were assured by the respondents namely; the contractor's financial status, delayed interim payments, change orders, contractor rank (classification), work stoppages, contract value, experience of the supervising engineers, contract duration and delay penalty. Historical data concerning these causes was extracted from past records of the General Directorate of School Buildings, then nonlinear regression was employed to develop two models (A & B) that can predict the final delivery time of public school building projects having ( 12) and ( 18) classes separately, where the Levenberg-Marquardt technique was used to develop the mathematical equations. The developed prediction equations show a degree of average accuracy of (97.79%) for schools having (12) classes and (97.11%) for schools having (18) classes, with (R 2 ) for both NLR models of (81.25%) and (87.58%) respectively.

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Investigation of Cost-Influencing Factors Potentially Controllable by Main Contractors in Construction Projects in Iraq

Ali

Khaled

2020

ETJ

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Cost overrun in construction projects is a common phenomenon in Iraq. This might occur due to diversity of factors. This study aims to identify the factors influencing construction projects cost that are potentially controllable by main contractors. A field study through a questionnaire survey was directed to a sample of related Iraqi professional engineers from general contracting companies at both public and private sectors. Their opinions on the impact and frequency of each factor were investigated. The questionnaire offered (59) factors classified in (8) categories namely; legislations, financial and economic, design, contractual, site management, material, labor and equipment. The factors were ranked according to the highest Relative Importance Index (RII). The study revealed (10) major factors that are potentially controllable by main contractors namely; labor productivity, sub-contractors and suppliers performance, equipment productivity, site organization and distribution of equipment, experience and training of project managers, scheduling and control techniques, planning for materials supply, planning for equipment supply, materials delivery and planning for skilled labor recruitment. Recommendations to aid contractors and owners in early identification of these factors are also included in this study.

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Forecasting the Final Cost of Iraqi Public School Projects Using Regression Analysis

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Forecasting Final Cost and Time Rates of Highway Construction Projects in Iraq Using Regression Analysis

Forecasting Final Cost and Time Rates of Highway Construction Projects in Iraq Using Regression Analysis

Predicting the Delivery Time of Public School Building Projects Using Nonlinear Regression

Investigation of Cost-Influencing Factors Potentially Controllable by Main Contractors in Construction Projects in Iraq

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