Forecasting the Impact of COVID-19 on Remittance Inflows in Selected South Asian Countries

Majumder, Shapan Chandra; Rahman, Md. Hasanur; Layla, Frajana; Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3648937

SSRN Journal

2020

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3648937

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Forecasting the Impact of COVID-19 on Remittance Inflows in Selected South Asian Countries

Shapan Chandra Majumder

Md. Hasanur Rahman

Frajana Layla

et al.

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“…Urban areas are more severely affected than rural areas in the poverty rate. This inequality happened due to a more significant number of urban workers depending on those activities severely affected by the pandemic (Majumder et al, 2020;Rahman & Habib, 2021;Titumir, 2021;Islam & Inan, 2021;Majumder et al, 2022). Due to job loss, pandemic-induced adverse economic shocks forced to decrease dietary quality.…”

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confidence: 99%

Pandemic, Job loss, Food consumption, Child health: Impact of (COVID-19) on the livelihood of marginal income people in Bangladesh

Tara

Rashed

Islam

et al. 2023

ijesh

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The study is to understand the livelihood-related impact on the marginalized people due to the outburst of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper also investigates the effects on child health of the vulnerable households who lost their work or job during these crisis moments. Following the fisher sampling method, 348 respondents are interviewed for quantitative and qualitative data. In this study, 20 districts from 7 divisions of Bangladesh are covered. Among the respondents, 90% said that the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacts their livelihood due to income loss. This study also found that 50% of people (respondents) lost their jobs, and almost 90% of people revealed that their income level declined due to COVID-19. As a result, their dietary patterns changed significantly. Due to inadequate food consumption and marginal income, people face an acute health crisis, especially child health. They declined their food intake, ultimately maintaining their partial expenditure by borrowing from financial institutions and relatives. The empirical evidence shows that job loss and income reductions positively impact raising children's health vulnerability. Since the government did not support them properly, their survival will be threatened in the long run. So, the study shows that COVID-19 affects the daily income and consumption patterns of vulnerable households who live by daily earnings.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Pandemic, Job loss, Food consumption, Child health: Impact of (COVID-19) on the livelihood of marginal income people in Bangladesh

Tara

Rashed

Islam

et al. 2023

ijesh

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Application of ARIMA model in forecasting remittance inflows: evidence from Yemen

Khan,

Gunwant

2024

IJEPS

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Forecasting the Effect of Migrants’ Remittances on Household Expenditure: COVID-19 Impact

et al. 2022

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The unexpected pandemic has provoked changes in all economic sectors worldwide. COVID-19 has had a direct and indirect effect on countries’ development. Thus, the pandemic limits the movements of labour forces among countries, restricting migrants’ remittances. In addition, it provokes the reorientation of consumer behaviour and changes in household expenditure. For developing countries, migrant remittances are one of the core drivers for improving household wellbeing. Therefore, the paper aims to analyse how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected household expenditure in Ukraine, as being representative of a developing country. For this purpose, the data series were compiled for 2010 to the second quarter of 2021. The data sources were as follows: Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, The World Bank, and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The core variables were as follows: migrants’ remittances and expenditure of households by the types. The following methods were applied to achieve the paper’s aims: the Dickey–Fuller Test Unit Root and the ARIMA model. The findings confirmed that COVID-19 has changed the structure of household expenditure in Ukraine. Considering the forecast of household expenditure until 2026, it was shown that due to changes in migrants’ remittances, household expenditure in all categories tends to increase. The forecasted findings concluded that household expenditure on transport had the most significant growth due to changing migrants’ remittances.

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Forecasting the Impact of COVID-19 on Remittance Inflows in Selected South Asian Countries

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

Pandemic, Job loss, Food consumption, Child health: Impact of (COVID-19) on the livelihood of marginal income people in Bangladesh

Pandemic, Job loss, Food consumption, Child health: Impact of (COVID-19) on the livelihood of marginal income people in Bangladesh

Application of ARIMA model in forecasting remittance inflows: evidence from Yemen

Forecasting the Effect of Migrants’ Remittances on Household Expenditure: COVID-19 Impact

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