Forecasting the Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations using genetic algorithm and neural network

Abstract

[1] The correct and timely forecast of the Indian summer monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations (ISOs) is very important. It has great impact on the agriculture and economy of the Indian subcontinent region. The applicability of Genetic Algorithm (GA) is demonstrated for nonlinear curve fitting of the inherently chaotic and noisy Lorenz time series and the ISO data. A robust method is developed for the very long-range prediction of the ISO using a feed-forward time delay backpropagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Using an iterative one-step-ahead prediction strategy, five years (120 pentads) of advanced prediction is made for the ISO data with good forecast skill. It is shown that a hybrid GA-ANN model may be used as an early forecast model followed by ANN only model as a more reliable model.Citation: Dwivedi, S., and A. C. Pandey (2011), Forecasting the Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations using genetic algorithm and neural network, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L15801,

Elucidating the role of topological pattern discovery and support vector machine in generating predictive models for Indian summer monsoon rainfall

“…A number of ANN-based models have been reported to apply on ISMP (Prakash et al 2014;Acharya et al 2012;Shukla et al 2011;Tripathi et al 2008;Cannon and McKendry 2002;Goswami, 2002;Rajeevan et al 2000). Back propagation neural network (BPNN) has been reported to use ISMR prediction (Singh and Borah 2013;Dwivedi and Pandey 2011;Cannon and McKendry 1999). Application of ANN-based dimension reduction techniques like principle component analysis (PCA) and self-organising map (SOM) have been reported in a number of works for predicting ISMR (Chattopadhyay et al 2008;Guhathakurta et al 1999).…”

Influence of Climate Change on Vector-borne disease (Malaria) in India

“…This model also accounts for human population and land cover dynamics. Since the summer monsoon of the Indian climate has a huge socioeconomic impact (Dwivedi and Pandey 2011;Dwivedi et al 2015), these impacts need disaster risk management. We aimed to study the effect of extremes of rainfall and temperatures from an epidemiological perspective.…”