Forecasting the limits of resilience: integrating empirical research with theory

Thrush, Simon F.; Hewitt, Judi E.; Dayton, Paul K.; Coco, Giovanni; Lohrer, Andrew M.; Norkko, Alf; Norkko, Joanna; Chiantore, Mariachiara

doi:10.1098/rspb.2009.0661

Cited by 193 publications

(197 citation statements)

References 76 publications

(102 reference statements)

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“…Thus, even with widespread climate change in the North (Serreze et al 2000), we can still expect substantial variation in the resilience of different landscape units and their vulnerability to change. A challenge remains to ecologists and managers to predict sets of conditions under which we expect the greatest potential for threshold changes and to adjust our management strategies accordingly , Thrush et al 2009). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A sensitive slope: estimating landscape patterns of forest resilience in a changing climate

et al. 2010

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Abstract. Changes in Earth's environment are expected to stimulate changes in the composition and structure of ecosystems, but it is still unclear how the dynamics of these responses will play out over time. In long-lived forest systems, communities of established individuals may be resistant to respond to directional climate change, but may be highly sensitive to climate effects during the early life stages that follow disturbance. This study combined analyses of pre-fire and post-fire tree composition, environmental data, and tree ring analyses to examine landscape patterns of forest recovery after fire in the south-central Yukon, Canada, a climatically dry region of boreal forest where there is evidence of increasing drought stress. Pre-fire stand composition and age structures indicated that successional trajectories dominated by white spruce (Picea glauca) with little aspen (Populus tremuloides) comprised most of the study area during the last fire cycle. Although spruce seedling recruitment after the fire was highest at sites near unburned seed sources and where surface organic layers were shallow, spruce seedling densities were often insufficient to regenerate the pre-fire spruce forests. In particular, sites in the warmer topographic locations of the valley lowland and south-facing slopes typically had few spruce seedlings and instead were dominated by aspen. The opposite pattern was observed on north-facing slopes. Age reconstructions of pre-and post-fire stands indicate that future canopy composition is driven by initial post-fire recruitment and thus observed landscape differences in seedling recruitment are likely to be maintained through the next 100-200 years of succession. Observed results support the hypothesis that sites experiencing greater environmental stress show the lowest resilience to disturbance, or greatest compositional changes. Analyses of tree-ring responses to climate variables across the same landscape indicate that patterns of tree growth prior to a disturbance may be a useful predictor of landscape variations in forest resilience, allowing managers to better anticipate where future changes in forest composition are likely to occur.Key words: age structure; dendrochronology; equivalent latitude; fire; forest regeneration; landscape ecology; seed dispersal; slope aspect; topography; Yukon.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A sensitive slope: estimating landscape patterns of forest resilience in a changing climate

et al. 2010

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“…The unpredictability and irreversibility of the shifts can cause serious management problems and are seen as indicators of an ecosystem with multiple stable states (e.g. deYoung et al 2004, Huggett 2005, Bestelmeyer 2006, Groffman et al 2006, Suding & Hobbs 2009, Thrush et al 2009). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiple stable states and relationship between thresholds in processes and states

Petraitis

Hoffman²

2010

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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The concept of thresholds is applied broadly in ecology to both processes and states that exhibit step-like behavior. Thresholds are observed in parameters, equilibrium states, and in states over time, but presence or absence of thresholds at any of these levels does not provide information about the occurrence of thresholds at the other levels. Here we explore the relationship between thresholds and theory of multiple stable states. We present a 2-species Lotka-Volterra model of competition to illustrate that thresholds and hysteresis-like behavior are possible in linear systems. A grazing model is presented to show that multiple stable states are possible without thresholds in the underlying processes. The concept of thresholds within the context of multiple stable states is reviewed in an attempt to resolve some of the confusion that stems from the different meanings of thresholds.

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“…In the context of SGS, empirical evidence is more persuasive than theory, and the challenge of translating simple theoretical models into applications in real world ecosystems is significant (Thrush et al 2009. Shifting thinking from simple cause and effect relationships and single responses to considering networks of interactions and cumulative effects is particularly important.…”

Section: Gather Data and Search For Warning Signsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The language of resilience, regimes shifts, tipping points, thresholds and alternate states is confusing (Thrush et al 2009), but from a SGS perspective the consequence is surprise. Surprise can occur for many reasons e.g., unknown relationships and connections, lack of information on the pace of change, an over reliance on techno-fixes rather than reducing drivers of change, or restricting the number of strategies that may contribute to solutions (Toth 2008).…”

Section: Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Addressing surprise and uncertain futures in marine science, marine governance, and society

Thrush¹,

Lewis²,

Heron³

et al. 2016

E&S

Self Cite

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ABSTRACT. On an increasingly populated planet, with decreasing biodiversity and limited new opportunities to tap unexploited natural resources, there is a clear need to adjust aspects of marine management and governance. Although sectarian management has succeeded in addressing and managing some important threats to marine ecosystems, unintended consequences are often associated with overlooking nonlinear interactions and cumulative impacts that increase the risk of surprises in social-ecological systems. In this paper, we begin to untangle science-governance-society (SGS) interdependencies in marine systems by considering how to recognize the risk of surprise in social and ecological dynamics. Equally important is drawing attention to our state of preparedness, adaptation, and timeliness of response in ecosystem governance and society, which involve fostering transformations away from rigid and nonintegrated structures of governance. More inclusive decision-making processes, deeper understanding of complexity, and colearning across SGS can help to build constructive solutions that are likely to benefit multiple stakeholders and build capacity to understand and respond to change.

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Forecasting the limits of resilience: integrating empirical research with theory

Cited by 193 publications

References 76 publications

A sensitive slope: estimating landscape patterns of forest resilience in a changing climate

A sensitive slope: estimating landscape patterns of forest resilience in a changing climate

Multiple stable states and relationship between thresholds in processes and states

Addressing surprise and uncertain futures in marine science, marine governance, and society

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