Forecasting the mortality rates of Malaysian population using Heligman-Pollard model

Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty; Mohd, Razak; Ngataman, Nuraini; Abrisam, W N A Wan Mohd

doi:10.1063/1.4995851

Cited by 1 publication

(3 citation statements)

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“…To forecast the rates of mortality for the Malaysian population in the years 2020 and 2025, the parameters for the Heligman-Pollard model need to be estimated first as discussed by Ibrahim et al [6]. The empirical data sets of Malaysian population for the period of 1981 to 2015 for both genders will be considered in the study.…”

Section: Heligman-pollard Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Actuaries, demographers and researchers have been playing important roles in forecasting mortality rates for the benefits of insurance and pension industries as well as other fields. There are several methods that have been discussed in previous studies to forecast mortality rates [6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. One of the well-known methods is the Heligman and Pollard model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One of the well-known methods is the Heligman and Pollard model. As mentioned by many researchers, this model is the best mortality model ever available at all ages and it is also an effective way to generate a specific mortality rate for population projection [6,8,10]. Therefore, in order to forecast future mortality rates for this study, the Heligman and Pollard model will be used.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of Mortality Improvement on the Pension Cost Due to Aging Population

Ibrahim

Nordin²

2020

MATEMATIKA

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Aging is a good indicator in demographic and health areas as the lifespanof the elderly population increases. Based on the government’s Economic Outlook 2019,it was found that an aging population would increase the government pension paymentsas the pensioners and their beneficiaries have longer life expectancy. Due to mortalityrates decreasing over time, the life expectancy tends to increase in the future. Theaims of this study are to forecast the mortality rates in the years 2020 and 2025 usingthe Heligman-Pollard model and then analyse the effect of mortality improvement onthe pension cost (annuity factor) for the Malaysian population. However, this studyonly focuses on estimating the annuity factor using life annuities through the forecastedmortality rates. The findings indicated that the pension cost is expected to increase ifthe life expectancy of the Malaysian population increases due to the aging population inthe near future. Thus, to reduce pension costs and help the pensioners from insufficientfinancial income, the government needs to consider an extension of the retirement age infuture.

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Section: Heligman-pollard Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%