“…Although the literature dealing with the influence of uncertainty on output primarily relies on in-samplebased structural analyses, more recently, quite a few studies (see e.g., Aye et al, 2019aAye et al, , 2019bBalcilar et al, 2016;Gupta et al, forthcoming;Junttila & Vataja, 2018;Karnizova & Li, 2014;Pierdzioch & Gupta, 2020;Salisu et al, 2022;Segnon et al, 2018) have also analyzed the role of uncertainty in forecasting economic activity (output growth and recessions) in out-of-sample analyses. This is an important line of research, because policymakers in general, and central banks in particular, would need accurate predictions of the future path of the economy following periods of heightened uncertainty while making their policy decisions.…”