Forecasting the SARS COVID-19 pandemic and critical care resources threshold in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: population analysis of aggregate data

Abstract

ObjectiveTo generate cross-national forecasts of COVID-19 trajectories and quantify the associated impact on essential critical care resources for disease management in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.DesignPopulation-level aggregate analysis.SettingBahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia.MethodsWe applied an extended time-dependent SEICRD compartmental model to predict the flow of people between six states, susceptible–exposed–infected–critical–recovery–death, accounting for community mitigation strategies and the latent period between exposure and infected and contagious states. Then, we used the WHO Adaptt Surge Planning Tool to predict intensive care unit (ICU) and human resources capacity based on predicted daily active and cumulative infections from the SEICRD model.Main outcome measuresPredicted COVID-19 infections, deaths, and ICU and human resources capacity for disease management.ResultsCOVID-19 infections vary daily from 498 per million in Bahrain to over 300 per million in UAE and Qatar, to 9 per million in Saudi Arabia. The cumulative number of deaths varies from 302 per million in Oman to 89 in Qatar. UAE attained its first peak as early as 21 April 2020, whereas Oman had its peak on 29 August 2020. In absolute terms, Saudi Arabia is predicted to have the highest COVID-19 mortality burden, followed by UAE and Oman. The predicted maximum number of COVID-19-infected patients in need of oxygen therapy during the peak of emergency admissions varies between 690 in Bahrain, 1440 in Oman and over 10 000 in Saudi Arabia.ConclusionAlthough most GCC countries have managed to flatten the epidemiological curve by August 2020, trends since November 2020 show potential increase in new infections. The pandemic is predicted to recede by August 2021, provided the existing infection control measures continue effectively and consistently across all countries. Current health infrastructure including the provision of ICUs and nursing staff seem adequate, but health systems should keep ICUs ready to manage critically ill patients.

COVID‐19 Metabolomic‐Guided Amino Acid Therapy Protects from Inflammation and Disease Sequelae

“…However, it has been reported that enteral addition of l ‐glutamine in the early period of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection could lead to a shortened hospital stay and less need for ICU admission. [ 25–27 ] Collectively, we revealed that metabolic profiles were similar between asymptomatic patients and symptomatic patients in remission, and identified l ‐citrulline, l ‐glutamine, and l ‐alanine as the commonly up‐regulated metabolites among these groups.…”

“…It has been reported that vitamin D, zinc, glutamine, and other nutrients exhibit beneficial effects and are promising as a therapeutic option for COVID‐19. [ 26,27 ] Among the huge number of metabolites, amino acids play essential roles in regulating the homeostasis of immune responses. [ 41,42 ] In this study, metabolic pathways commonly up‐regulated in asymptomatic and remission patients included arginine biosynthesis, alanine, and glutamate metabolism, in which l ‐citrulline, l ‐glutamine, and l ‐alanine were the most significant metabolites.…”

Medical Oxygen as a Life-Saving Medicine: A rapid review of the oxygen landscape and innovative efforts in the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region in Response to COVID-19 and Beyond

“…The only paper that discussed oxygen supply, demand, or related infrastructure was by Amira K Al-Aamri et al, which forecasted the critical care resources threshold in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. ( 13 ) The paper predicted the number of critical cases requiring oxygen, among many other parameters estimated using the WHO Adaptt Surge Planning Tool. ( 14 ).…”

Diverging levels of COVID-19 governmental response satisfaction across middle eastern Arab countries: a multinational study

“…Specific smartphone applications were employed to communicate between the health authorities and the public, and a work-from-home system was adopted [48,49]. Moreover, treatment, quarantine, screening services, and vaccines were offered freely even for the residence violators, along with stabilizing food and medical commodities' levels and market prices [16,[50][51][52][53][54]. In addition, at the time of our survey, the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in UAE, KSA, Bahrain and Kuwait was over 520,000 cases (5.2% of population ~ 10 million) with 1590 deaths (0.3%), 418,000 cases (1.2% of population ~ 35.4 million) with 7000 deaths (1.7%), 178,000 cases (9.9% of population ~ 1.8 million) with 648 deaths (0.4%), and 275,000 cases (6.5% of population ~ 4.2 million) with 1570 deaths (0.6%), respectively [24].…”