Abstract:The substantial increase in the number of daily new cases infected with coronavirus around the world is alarming, and several researchers are currently using various mathematical and machine learning-based prediction models to estimate the future trend of this pandemic. In this work, we employed the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast the expected daily number of COVID-19 cases in Saudi Arabia in the next four weeks. We first performed four different prediction models; Autoregres… Show more
“…The incidence of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in top 10 countries which send Hajj pilgrims in 2018 varied from 227/1 M population to 3910/1 M population [ 30 ] (Table 1 ). Thus, it was expected that the Hajj and Umrah will be suspended [ 33 ]. Fig.…”
Section: Covid-19 Pandemic In the Kingdom Saudi Arabia And The Main Cmentioning
Purpose of Review
We discuss the risk of COVID-19 in religious mass gathering events including Hajj and Umrah pilgrimages.
Recent Findings
The risk of transmission of respiratory viruses including COVID-19 is particularly high due to the overcrowding conditions at the Hajj and Umrah. The profile of the Hajj pilgrims who tend to be older and with multiple comorbidities corresponds to that of individuals at risk for severe COVID-19. In order to avoid a COVID-19 outbreak with potential spreading to many countries through returning pilgrims, Saudi Arabia suspended the Umrah, and access to the 2020 Hajj was very limited.
Summary
A clear relation between early suspension of religious mass gatherings and lower occurrence of COVID-19 transmission in countries that took such measures promptly was noticed. There are lessons to national and international health organizations for other mass gatherings in the context of the pandemic.
“…The incidence of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in top 10 countries which send Hajj pilgrims in 2018 varied from 227/1 M population to 3910/1 M population [ 30 ] (Table 1 ). Thus, it was expected that the Hajj and Umrah will be suspended [ 33 ]. Fig.…”
Section: Covid-19 Pandemic In the Kingdom Saudi Arabia And The Main Cmentioning
Purpose of Review
We discuss the risk of COVID-19 in religious mass gathering events including Hajj and Umrah pilgrimages.
Recent Findings
The risk of transmission of respiratory viruses including COVID-19 is particularly high due to the overcrowding conditions at the Hajj and Umrah. The profile of the Hajj pilgrims who tend to be older and with multiple comorbidities corresponds to that of individuals at risk for severe COVID-19. In order to avoid a COVID-19 outbreak with potential spreading to many countries through returning pilgrims, Saudi Arabia suspended the Umrah, and access to the 2020 Hajj was very limited.
Summary
A clear relation between early suspension of religious mass gatherings and lower occurrence of COVID-19 transmission in countries that took such measures promptly was noticed. There are lessons to national and international health organizations for other mass gatherings in the context of the pandemic.
“…In order to prevent this situation, many unconventional prevention and control measures have been proposed (Alzahrani SI, Aljamaan IA, Al-Fakih EA., at el.) (Alzahrani et al 2020). Aslam M. proposed to use a more logical method of the Kalman channel in combination with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in order to obtain a more accurate estimation of the prevalence, dynamic cases, active cases, and death cases of COVID-19 pandemic identification in Pakistan (Aslam 2020).…”
Purpose Coronavirus disease is an irresistible infection caused by the respiratory disease coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It was first found in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and has since spread universally, causing a constant pandemic. On June 3, 2020, 6.37 million cases were found in 188 countries and regions. During pandemic prevention, this can minimize the impact of the disease on individuals and groups. A study was carried out on coronavirus to observe the number of cases, deaths, and recovery cases worldwide within a specific time period of 5 months. Based on this data, this research paper will predict the future spread of this infectious disease in human society. Methods In our study, the dataset was taken from WHO "Data WHO Coronavirus Covid-19 cases and deaths-WHO-COVID-19-global-data". This dataset contains information about the observation date, provenance/state, country/region, and latest updates. In this article, we implemented several forecasting techniques: naive method, simple average, moving average, single exponential smoothing, Holt linear trend method, Holt-Winters method and ARIMA, for comparison, and how these methods improve the Root mean square error score. Results The naive method is best suited as described over all other methods. In the ARIMA model, utilizing grid search, we recognized a lot of boundaries that delivered the best-fit model for our time series data. By continuing the model, future predictions of death cases indicate that the number of deaths will increased by more than 600,000 by January 2021. Conclusion This survey will support the government and experts in making arrangements for what is about to happen. Based on the findings of instantaneous model, these models can be adjusted to guide long time.
“…The ARIMA model is a generalized form of autoregressive moving average model. As it is well-known for forecasting, some researchers have used ARIMA to predict the new pandemic (Alzahrani, Aljamaan et al 2020, Kufel and Policy 2020, Moftakhar, Mozhgan et al 2020, Roy, Bhunia et al 2020). (Maleki, Mahmoudi et al 2020) used a time series model based on two-pieces distribution to predict new COVID-19 cases.…”
Section: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (Arima)mentioning
The Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has distributed to more than 200 territory worldwide leading to about 24 million confirmed cases as of August 25, 2020. Several models have been released that forecast the outbreak globally. This work presents a review of the most important forecasting models against COVID-19 and shows a short analysis of each one. The work presented in this study possesses two parts. A detailed scientometric analysis was done in the first section that provides an influential tool for describing bibliometric analyses. The analysis was performed on data corresponding to COVID-19 using the Scopus and Web of Science databases. For analysis, keywords and subject areas were addressed while classification of forecasting models, criteria evaluation and comparison of solution approaches were done in the second section of the work. Conclusion and discussion are provided as the final sections of this study.
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