Forecasting the State Debt of Ukraine in the Context of Ensuring the State Debt Sustainability

Abstract

Objective. The objective of the article is to assess the state of debt indicators, identify posi­tive and negative changes in the structure and dynamics of debt indicators, forecast the amount of public debt of Ukraine, and develop recommendations to ensure medium-term debt sustainability of the state in the context of anticrisis action plan. Methods. The theoretical basis of the study is the scientific works of domestic andforeign sci­entists on public debt management, debt policy, debt sustainability and debt security of the state. The following research methods are used in the research process: analysis and synthesis (to deter­mine crisis and intercrisis periods), historical-logical (to group and determine causal relation­ships), econometric modeling (to build models for forecasting VAT and public debt) and scenario analysis (to assess possible options for further events). Results. Based on the analysis of statistics on public debt, budget deficit, their ratio to GDP, the main trends in public policy regarding compliance with the convergence criteria, three historical periods in the dynamics of public debt and budget deficit are identified, the causes and conse­quences of financial crises are determined. A fundamentally new approach to forecasting public debt and determining the safe amount of additional borrowing in accordance with safe sources of debt repayment is proposed, the choice of such sources is justified. A regression model of public debt forecast is built. In order to ensure the solvency of the state in the medium term, a system of tactical measures in the field of tax and budget policy is proposed.