Forecasting the Structure of Energy Production from Renewable Energy Sources and Biofuels in Poland

Brodny, Jarosław; Tutak, Magdalena; Saki, Saqib A.

doi:10.3390/en13102539

Cited by 54 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…The Polish energy policy remains consistent with the EU policy, for which the main priorities are, among others: energy efficiency improvement, reduction in pollution from the energy sector, development of renewable energy, including biofuels [4]. According to forecasts for Poland, in 2025 about 18% of energy, and in 2030 about 23% of energy will be generated from RES [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…It is estimated that also in the coming years, wind energy will dominate among RES in Poland. It should be noted that currently 100% of wind energy in Poland is produced by onshore wind farms [5]. This situation must change in the near future due to the very restrictive Act on Investments in Wind Power plants, introducing restrictions on the permissible locations for onshore wind farms in Poland [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-Criteria Fuzzy Evaluation of the Planned Offshore Wind Farm Investments in Poland

Ziemba

2021

Energies

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In recent years, the dynamic development of renewable energy has been visible all over the world, including Poland. Wind energy is one of the most used renewable energy sources. In Poland, by 2030, it is planned to commission at least six offshore wind farms with a total capacity of 3.8 GW. It is estimated that these investments will increase Poland’s GDP by approximately PLN 60 billion and increase tax revenues by PLN 15 billion. Therefore, they could be a strong stimulus for the development of the Polish economy and may be of great importance in recovering from the crisis caused by the economic constraints related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the article is a multi-criteria evaluation of the investments planned in Poland in offshore wind farms and identification of potentially the most economically effective investments. To account for the uncertainty in this decision problem, a modified fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method was used and a comprehensive sensitivity analysis was performed. As a result of the research, a ranking of the considered projects was constructed and the most preferred investments were identified. Moreover, it has been shown that all the investments considered are justified and recommended.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-Criteria Fuzzy Evaluation of the Planned Offshore Wind Farm Investments in Poland

Ziemba

2021

Energies

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“…In recent decades, renewable energy sources (RES) has become an important way to address environmental concerns. RES shares have been rising at different rates across countries, e.g., for the European Union (EU) the share has tripled to 18% since 1990, while for Poland it has increased six-fold [1]. Wind energy is and will be important part of this equation.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hybrid and Ensemble Methods of Two Days Ahead Forecasts of Electric Energy Production in a Small Wind Turbine

et al. 2021

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The ability to forecast electricity generation for a small wind turbine is important both on a larger scale where there are many such turbines (because it creates problems for networks managed by distribution system operators) and for prosumers to allow current energy consumption planning. It is also important for owners of small energy systems in order to optimize the use of various energy sources and facilitate energy storage. The research presented here addresses an original, rarely predicted 48 h forecasting horizon for small wind turbines. This topic has been rather underrepresented in research, especially in comparison with forecasts for large wind farms. Wind speed forecasts with a 48 h horizon are also rarely used as input data. We have analyzed the available data to identify potentially useful explanatory variables for forecasting models. Eight sets with increasing data amounts were created to analyze the influence of the types and amounts of data on forecast quality. Hybrid, ensemble and single methods are used for predictions, including machine learning (ML) solutions like long short-term memory (LSTM), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), support vector regression (SVR) and K-nearest neighbours regression (KNNR). Original hybrid methods, developed for research of specific implementations and ensemble methods based on hybrid methods’ decreased errors of energy generation forecasts for small wind turbines in comparison with single methods. The “artificial neural network (ANN) type MLP as an integrator of ensemble based on hybrid methods” ensemble forecasting method incorporates an original combination of predictors. Predictions by this method have the lowest mean absolute error (MAE). In addition, this paper presents an original ensemble forecasting method, called “averaging ensemble based on hybrid methods without extreme forecasts”. Predictions by this method have the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) error among all tested methods. LSTM, a deep neural network, is the best single method, MLP is the second best one, while SVR, KNNR and, especially, linear regression (LR) perform less well. We prove that lagged values of forecasted time series slightly increase the accuracy of predictions. The same applies to seasonal and daily variability markers. Our studies have also demonstrated that using the full set of available input data and the best proposed hybrid and ensemble methods yield the lowest error. The proposed hybrid and ensemble methods are also applicable to other short-time generation forecasting in renewable energy sources (RES), e.g., in photovoltaic (PV) systems or hydropower.

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“…The Polish energy sector is currently facing serious challenges. High demand for energy, inadequate level of development of fuel and energy production and transport infrastructure, considerable dependence on external supplies of natural gas and almost full dependence on external supplies of crude oil, and obligations in the field of environmental protection, including climate protection, necessitate taking decisive measures to prevent deterioration of fuel and energy consumers' situation (Brodny et al, 2020a;Michalak & Dziugiewicz, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

SWOT analysis of renewable energy sector in Mazowieckie Voivodeship (Poland): current progress, prospects and policy implications

Igliński

Skrzatek

Kujawski

et al. 2021

Environ Dev Sustain

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Renewable energy (RE) plays an increasingly important role in the economy of almost every country in the world. In order to examine the state of renewable energy (RE) in Mazowieckie Voivodeship (Poland), a literature review was carried out, anonymous surveys were conducted, a SWOT (Strenghts, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) and TOWS analysis were carried out and the potential of RE in Mazowieckie voivodship was estimated. The total capacity of all installations is equal to 712 MW. In recent months, number of prosumers have increased to 11,742 in the Voivodeship, and the capacity of their installations is estimated at 66 MW. Simplification of legal regulations and educating society is strongly recommended. Respondents in the survey and SWOT analysis on the future of the energy sector in Mazowieckie Voivodeship show that solar energy (35.5% of respondents) and wind energy (24.5% of respondents) have the greatest chances for the development. Development of the RE sector in the Voivodeship means new jobs, both in this sector and around it. Significant RE potential together with large project financing possibilities may cause Mazowieckie Voivodeship to be a leader in RE production in Poland. It is this Voivodeship (with its capital Warsaw) that can serve as an example of the energy transformation towards 100% RE.

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Forecasting the Structure of Energy Production from Renewable Energy Sources and Biofuels in Poland

Cited by 54 publications

References 55 publications

Multi-Criteria Fuzzy Evaluation of the Planned Offshore Wind Farm Investments in Poland

Multi-Criteria Fuzzy Evaluation of the Planned Offshore Wind Farm Investments in Poland

Hybrid and Ensemble Methods of Two Days Ahead Forecasts of Electric Energy Production in a Small Wind Turbine

SWOT analysis of renewable energy sector in Mazowieckie Voivodeship (Poland): current progress, prospects and policy implications

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