Forecasting the supply of construction skills in the UK

Abstract

An aggregate supply model is presented for craft trainee entrants to the UK construction sector using annual data for the period 1976-1990. The theoretical framework used to formulate the equation was based on the human capital approach to analysing labour supply, as applied to new entrants to the engineering sector. In particular, the paper tests the hypothesis that the proportion of school-leavers choosing to train as construction operatives depends on the real craft wage and the long-term prospects of the construction industry. Co-integration was used to produce a long-run relationship between intakes, real wages, output and other variables. The supply equation was then reduced to a more parsimonious representation. The final restricted form of the model was tested against various diagnostic statistical criteria. The real craft wage and output were found to be the main factors determining the choice between training as a construction craft operative and any other job. In addition, demographic trends and socioenvironmental factors such as the image of the industry were found to have a strong effect on the supply of new entrants

A review of recent developments in construction operative training in the UK

“…The rise of self-employment and labour-only subcontracting in the 1980s coincided with low levels of formal training (Agapiou, 1996). Only a few of these smaller companies engaged in any form of training; to do so could jeopardize current pro® ts.…”

A Critical Review of Forecasting Models to Predict Manpower Demand

“…This centred upon the lack of any firm theoretical foundation as well as the practical problems of ensuring that all respondents are adopting common assumptions about the future scenario and that their responses are mutually consistent (Agapiou, 1996). In the case of acquiring knowledge from experts, it is based heavily on opinions, requires costly executive time, and taking a risk that an expert or an employer may not be able to provide accurate forecasts.…”

“…The main purpose of manpower forecasting is to facilitate training, which is a long-term investment in any economy. Agapiou (1996) stresses that appropriate training can only be developed if training needs are carefully identified. If employment forecasts had been available to provide forewarning information of likely shortfalls, employment policy makers and training providers might have been able to adjust the supply of skills and thereby mitigate some damaging effects of shortages (Hillebrandt and Meikle, 1985).…”

Critical analysis of construction workforce sustainability in a developed economy – case study in Hong Kong

“…Construction has long been acknowledged as craft-based industry since the early 1990s (Rowings et al, 1996, Agapiou et al, 1995. The industry was also characterised by labour intensive and wet-trade activities, which has led to poor safety record (Poon et al, 2001).…”

“…The value added aspect of construction is between 5% and 10% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in highly developed countries and between 3% and 5% in developing countries (Lowe, 2003). It also accounts for a significant share of the workforce market in the economy (Agapiou et al, 1995). Essentially, construction process needs a large pool of workers -3-with different specialised skills to satisfy the increasing demands from the public needs.…”