Forecasting tourism demand

Modelling inbound international tourism demand to Portugal

“…A STM is set up based on observed components of trends, seasonal patterns and cycles, all of which have direct interpretations. These components can be allowed to vary with time and explanatory variables are included wherever possible Moral, 1995, 1996;Garcia-Ferrer and Queralt, 1997;Turner et al, 1997;Young and Pedregal, 1997;Greenidge, 2001). The main difference between the AIDS models and the STM and ECM models is that the former do not take into account the stationarity of series, in the latter this is always implicit in the analysis.…”

Integrating forecasting and CGE models: The case of tourism in Scotland

“…This type of modelling has an established tradition of providing forecasts of tourism demand at both the sub-national and national levels (for example, Clewer, Pack, & Sinclair, 1990;Gonza´lez & Moral, 1996;Greenidge, 2001;Papatheodorou & Song, 2003). In his pioneering work, Harvey (1989, pp.…”

Modeling and Forecasting of International Tourism Demand in ASEAN Countries

“…In this study, Naïve method was used. SES model (Chen et al, 2008;Witt et al, 1994), SMA model (Makridakis et al, 1998;Hu et al, 2004;Lim and McAleer, 2008), Box-Jenkins model (Makridakis and Hibon, 1979), ARIMA (Kim et al, 2011;Goh and Law, 2002;Preez and Witt, 2003), Holt's DES model (Lim and McAleer, 2001;Makridakis et al, 1998), BSM model (Greenidge, 2001;Gonzalez and Moral, 1995;Turner and Witt, 2001;Kulendran and Witt, 2003) are other time series methods used by scholars. Casual econometric methods are other quantitative forecasting methods.…”