Forecasting Tuberculosis Incidence in Iran Using Box-Jenkins Models

Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Nasehi, Mahshid; Bahrampour, Abbas; Khanjani, Narges; Sharafi, Saeed; Ahmadi, Shanaz

doi:10.5812/ircmj.11779

Cited by 32 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The current study findings were in accordance with previous reports by Moosazadeh et al (9)(10)(11). Apart from domestic experiences, worldwide studies uniformly reported Figure 1.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Pulmonary Tuberculosis Seasonality Survey in Fars Province, South of Iran

2019

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Background: Some studies show tuberculosis (TB) seasonal pattern. There are only two reports addressing TB seasonal pattern in Iran. Objectives: The current retrospective analysis aimed at determining the seasonal distribution pattern of all registered pulmonary TB cases over the recent six years in Fars province of Iran. Methods: All patients with pulmonary TB in Fars province diagnosed from 2006 to 2011 were investigated in terms of gender, age, and the month of definitive diagnosis. Patients with clinical symptoms suggestive of pulmonary TB with at least one documented positive culture or smear for acid-fast bacilli were included. Results: A total of 934 patients with pulmonary TB with a mean age of 44.3 ± 21 years were studied, of whom 319 (42.2%) were male. The highest proportion of patients were diagnosed in May (10.7%) and June (10.2%) (P = 0.033). More than 29% of the TB incidents occurred during spring. The proportion of patients presenting in spring decreased from 39.7% in 2006 to 28.4% in 2011. Similarly, percentage of patients recorded in summer significantly decreased during the study (P = 0.008). Conclusions: Pulmonary TB is a seasonal disease in Fars province with peak incidence in warm seasons independent of patients' age and gender though seasonal fluctuations decreased over the study period.

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“…The current study findings were in accordance with previous reports by Moosazadeh et al (9)(10)(11). Apart from domestic experiences, worldwide studies uniformly reported Figure 1.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Pulmonary Tuberculosis Seasonality Survey in Fars Province, South of Iran

2019

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“…Likewise, Li, Guo, Han, Zhang, Qi, Xu, Wei, Han and Liu (2012) concluded that the ARIMA models adequately describe the changes in hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) frequency and these models can also be used for future forecasting that is tied to HFRS preventive control. In a similar vein, Moosazadeh, Nasehi, Bahrampour, Khanjani, Sharafi and Ahmadi (2014) proved that the Box-Jenkins and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models are the appropriate tools to predict a growing incidence of tuberculosis cases in Iran.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 93%

Forecasting on the long-term sustainability of the employees provident fund in Malaysia via the Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA model

Hassan¹,

Othman²

2018

BEH

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Abstract:This study employs the use of Box-Jenkins' ARIMA (1,1,0) model for the estimation and forecasts based on the annual data of EPF balances, which serve as a proxy to EPF sustainability, together with the yearly data of possible determinants namely investment earnings, nominal income, elderly population, life expectancy and mortality rate in Malaysia for the 1960 -2010 and 2010 -2014 periods, respectively. Amid a negative sentiment and conceivably bleak outlook on the long term EPF inadequacy to provide adequate incomes to elderly persons, the prognosis of this study instead reveals otherwise and is found to be in support for the long term prospect and sustainability of the EPF. With necessary improvements are underway to strengthen the performance of the administered EPF system, it is likely to believe that the EPF organization is committed to promoting its product as a more inclusive and equitable scheme in Malaysia.JEL Classifications: E27, G23, H55

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“…On the other hand, the results of a prediction study (using Box-Jenkins models) show an increasing trend of TB cases in Iran [58]. Considering the fact that Iran has long borders with Afghanistan and Pakistan which are regarded as high-burden countries for TB in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, in addition to the low efficacy of BCG vaccine, increasing trend of TB cases in Iran, especially in over 65 year-old people and the ageing population (10.5% and 21.7% of total population in 2020 and 2050, respectively) [59], call for an urgent and comprehensive program for prevention and control of TB in this country.…”

Section: Tb In Iranmentioning

confidence: 99%

BCG vaccine and pulmonary tuberculosis

Tafreshi

2016

vacres

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Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the most important public health problems in the world and has been declared as a global emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 1993. Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is one of the first developed vaccines to prevent TB. Unfortunately, BCG vaccine has had a limited duration of protection and has shown controversial and variable levels of efficacy, especially against pulmonary TB. On the other hand, efforts in production of new forms of this vaccine have been in vain and revaccination is not considered as a suitable strategy to control the disease. Considering that TB affects adults mostly between the ages of 15 and 59, pulmonary TB is more common than disseminated TB and BCG vaccine has had a minimal effect on the global burden of pulmonary TB. Before introducing a new, safe and effective vaccine, combined strategies in the field of control and treatment of TB rather than vaccination are necessary.

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Forecasting Tuberculosis Incidence in Iran Using Box-Jenkins Models

Cited by 32 publications

References 21 publications

Pulmonary Tuberculosis Seasonality Survey in Fars Province, South of Iran

Pulmonary Tuberculosis Seasonality Survey in Fars Province, South of Iran

Forecasting on the long-term sustainability of the employees provident fund in Malaysia via the Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA model

BCG vaccine and pulmonary tuberculosis

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