Forecasting weekly dengue incidence in Sri Lanka: Modified Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average modeling approach
Nilantha Karasinghe,
Sarath Peiris,
Ruwan Jayathilaka
et al.
Abstract:Dengue poses a significant and multifaceted public health challenge in Sri Lanka, encompassing both preventive and curative aspects. Accurate dengue incidence forecasting is pivotal for effective surveillance and disease control. To address this, we developed an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model tailored for predicting weekly dengue cases in the Colombo district. The modeling process drew on comprehensive weekly dengue fever data from the Weekly Epidemiological Reports (WER), spanning Janu… Show more
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