Forecasts and Reliability Analysis of Port Cargo Throughput in Hong Kong

Lam, William H. K.; Ng, Pan L. Plp; Seabrooke, W.; Hui, Eddie C.M.

doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9488(2004)130:3(133)

Cited by 77 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 7 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The current literature on forecasting seaborne cargo volumes attributes the variations in maritime shipping to macroeconomic and trade conditions [1][2][3][4][5], port competition [6,7], intermodal competition [8] and so on. In terms of time frame, the forecasting could be classified into long term and short term [9].…”

Section: Literature Surveymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Regarding studies adopting predicting tools rather than econometric analysis, Lam et al forecast 37 types of freight movements and cargo throughput of Hong Kong port using neural networks approach [3]. Moon is an example that justifies the port input-output model as a predictive tool to project the growth of maritime traffic and to provide information for future planning of ports [1].…”

Section: Literature Surveymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Impacts of the ECFA on seaborne trade volume and policy development for shipping and port industry in Taiwan

Lee

2011

Maritime Policy & Management

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper uses a global computable general equilibrium model, global trade analysis project and a value-to-volume conversion to arrive at quantitative estimates of the new seaborne cargo volumes resulting from a free trade agreement between Taiwan and China, namely, the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). The approach is designed to model asymmetric impacts of tariff removal and economy-wide interactions caused by the ECFA arriving at estimation in cargo value flows. Then a scientific approach is developed to convert the estimated cargo value flows into volume flows. The analysis concludes that in terms of total trade value, the ECFA liberalisation would induce a trade creation effect across the Strait of more than US$ 30 billions. There is an increase of US$ 26.04 billions in exports to China, which is much higher than imports from China (US$ 4.67 billions). Regarding the converted trade volume, the exports of uncontainerisable and containerisable cargo to China increase by 0.37 and 5.12 million tons (0.43 million TEUs), respectively. The increases in imports from China are relatively minor at 0.19 and 0.75 million tons (0.06 million TEUs) of uncontainerisable and containerisable cargo. Policy implications and suggestions for shipping and port industry are provided accordingly.

show abstract

Section: Literature Surveymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Surveymentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of the ECFA on seaborne trade volume and policy development for shipping and port industry in Taiwan

Lee

2011

Maritime Policy & Management

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Their regression model was further used to evaluate the regional role of Hong Kong port through a combined assessment of PRD. Lam et al (2004) applied neural network models to forecast 10 years of 37 types of freight movements, which were used to forecast the port cargo throughput in Hong Kong. They further used Monte Carlo simulation to assess the reliability of the forecasts, which were proved to be more reliable than those which used regression analysis.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The cargo throughput response to factor cost differentials-an analysis for the port of Hong Kong

Hui

et al. 2010

TTRA

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Previous studies on port cargo throughput have been simplified. The regression models are mainly based on the autoregressive time series, in which the port throughput is regressed against the lagged value from the preceding time period. Most factors are assumed exogenous to port throughput. This approach is based on the premise that ports are oligopoly markets and many factors (e.g. port charges) are not available for inclusion in research. The main objective of this study is to include the costs of using the port in the regression model so as to reflect real commercial decision. Due to port costs generally not being available, the real estate prices and other factors are chosen as proxy variables to indicate indirectly the costs and benefits of using the port under study.

show abstract

“…The forecasting of the cargo traffic can be performed with the historical cargo traffics or may be related with the arrival and departure ship numbers. In literature there are several efforts to predict the future cargo traffic of a seaport: [6,7,8,9,10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determination of the Storage of the Area Requirements for İzmir Container Port by Implementing the Neural Networks

Yıldırım¹,

Gökkuş²

2015

IJUNESST

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Forecasts and Reliability Analysis of Port Cargo Throughput in Hong Kong

Cited by 77 publications

References 7 publications

Impacts of the ECFA on seaborne trade volume and policy development for shipping and port industry in Taiwan

Impacts of the ECFA on seaborne trade volume and policy development for shipping and port industry in Taiwan

The cargo throughput response to factor cost differentials-an analysis for the port of Hong Kong

Determination of the Storage of the Area Requirements for İzmir Container Port by Implementing the Neural Networks

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About