Foreclosures and crime: A city-level analysis in Southern California of a dynamic process

Abstract

Although a growing body of research has examined and found a positive relationship between neighborhood crime and home foreclosures, some research suggests this relationship may not hold in all cities. This study uses city-level data to assess the relationship between foreclosures and crime by estimating longitudinal models with lags for monthly foreclosure and crime data in 128 cities from 1996 to 2011 in Southern California. We test whether these effects are stronger in cities with a combination of high economic inequality and high economic segregation; and whether they are stronger in cities with high racial/ethnic heterogeneity and high racial segregation. One month, and cumulative three month, six month, and 12-month lags of foreclosures are found to increase city level crime for all crimes except motor vehicle theft. The effect of foreclosures on these crime types is stronger in cities with simultaneously high levels of inequality but low levels of economic segregation. The effect of foreclosures on aggravated assault, robbery, and burglary is stronger in cities with simultaneously high levels of racial heterogeneity and low levels of racial segregation. On the other hand, foreclosures had a stronger effect on larceny and motor vehicle theft when they occurred in a city with simultaneously high levels of racial heterogeneity and high levels of racial segregation. There is evidence that the foreclosure crisis had large scale impacts on cities, leading to higher crime rates in cities hit harder by foreclosures. Nonetheless, the economic and racial characteristics of the city altered this effect.Keywords: cities; crime; foreclosures; social distance; social capital; segregation. Alyssa W. Chamberlain is an Assistant Professor in the School of Criminology and CriminalJustice at Arizona State University. Her research interests focus on the nexus between neighborhood dynamics and crime, more specifically, the spatial and temporal relationship between neighborhood structural characteristics, social inequality and crime and how those factors shape how neighborhoods change over time. She also examines issues related to prisoner reentry and corrections. Whereas recent studies have focused on the relationship between foreclosures and crime at the geographic level of neighborhoods, there are various reasons why the impact of foreclosures may be felt at even larger geographic units such as cities. For one thing, the large magnitude of the foreclosure crisis implies that entire cities may experience very high rates of foreclosures. If this is indeed the case, do these cities suffer a rise in the level of crime as a consequence? Furthermore, the larger city context within which neighborhoods are situated likely plays a critical role in determining how the community may respond to various economic and financial hardships (Logan and Molotch 1987), such as the housing crisis. This implies that certain cities may be better equipped to redress various social problems that may arise. For example, although foreclosures...

Revisión sistemática de la literatura sobre mecanismos que vinculan crimen y pobreza

“…Hipp also finds that, in cities where there were higher eviction rates, robbery and assaults increased. However, this association does not appear in all cities, though the effect was greater in cities with more economic inequality and low socioeconomic segregation (Hipp and Chamberlain, 2015).…”

Housing Disinvestment and Crime in a Phoenix Suburb: Exploring the Differential Effects of Investors and Owner-Occupants

“…In the wake of the housing crisis, a flurry of research has examined how foreclosures impact crime in communities. Recent scholarship has focused on the relationship between foreclosures and crime at the city, county, and neighborhood level yielding mixed results (Acevedo 2009;Cui 2010;Hipp and Chamberlain 2015;Katz, Wallace, and Hedberg 2013;Stucky, Ottensmann, and Payton 2012; Williams, Galster, and Verma 2014). However, the role of housing speculators has been largely unstudied in prior research, despite investors' significant role in the housing boom and bust (J. M. Lee and Choi 2011).…”

“…Early research testing cross-sectional effects found mixed and contradictory results regarding the relationship between foreclosures and crime (see Acevedo 2009;Immergluck and Smith 2006;Kirk and Hyra 2012;Stucky, Ottensmann, and Payton 2012;Williams, Galster, and Verma 2014). Recent studies examining longitudinal effects show a more definitive link between neighborhood foreclosures and crime over time, although the nature of that time line, whether it is monthly, yearly, or longer, is in flux (Cui 2010;Ellen, Lacoe, and Sharygin 2013;Hipp and Chamberlain 2015;Katz, Wallace, and Hedberg 2013;Wallace, Hedberg, and Katz 2012;R. E. Wilson and Paulsen 2010).…”

“…Foreclosures may set in motion a process of abandonment, decay, and property value decline, all of which can lead to higher crime. Prior research examining the foreclosure-crime relationship has found positive causal effects (Cui 2010;Ellen, Lacoe, and Sharygin 2013;Hipp and Chamberlain 2015;Katz, Wallace, and Hedberg 2013;Stucky, Ottensmann, and Payton 2012;Wallace, Hedberg, and Katz 2012;R. E. Wilson and Paulsen 2008).…”

“…Foreclosures may set in motion a process of abandonment, decay, and property value decline, all of which can lead to higher crime. Prior research examining the foreclosure-crime relationship has found positive causal effects (Cui 2010;Ellen, Lacoe, and Sharygin 2013;Hipp and Chamberlain 2015;Katz, Wallace, and Hedberg 2013;Stucky, Ottensmann, and Payton 2012;Wallace, Hedberg, and Katz 2012; R. E. Wilson and Paulsen 2008). In turn, scholars have made note of a diverse speculative market during the housing boom that was geographically concentrated in lower-income, central city communities of color (Coulton, Schramm, and Hirsh 2010;Gilderbloom and Squires 2011;Immergluck 2010Immergluck , 2012Kingsley, Smith, and Price 2009).…”