Abstract:Foreign direct investment is of increasing importance in the European Union. This paper estimates the effect of taxes on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and on three sub-components of these flows for the countries of the enlarged European Union. The model in the spirit of gravity equations robustly explains FDI flows between the 25 member states. Sample selection needs to be addressed in the estimation. We show that the different subcomponents of FDI should and indeed do react differently to taxes. After controlling for unobserved country characteristics and common time effects, the top statutory corporate tax rate of both, source and host country, turn insignificant for total FDI and investment into equity. However, high source country taxes clearly increase the probability of firms to re-invest profits abroad and lower the percentage of debt financed FDI. This might reflect profit re-allocation to avoid taxes. Market size factors have the expected signs for total FDI.Non-productivity adjusted wages as determinants of FDI are less robust.
Keywords:Foreign direct investment, FDI, corporate taxes, sample selection model, profit re-allocation JEL-Classification: F3, F2, F4, E6, H2, H8
Non Technical SummaryForeign direct investment (FDI) is of increasing importance in the European Union. FDI flows among the old EU 15 have substantially increased, but also investments into the now 10 new member states (NMS) have significantly increased. Recently, the 10 NMS have also started to invest abroad. FDI flows are sub-divided into three sub-components by Eurostat: investment into equity, re-invested profits, and other (mostly credits) investments.We discuss the relevance of corporate taxes for the different parts of FDI.While in principle high corporate taxes should deter FDI, the reaction of the sub-components of FDI might differ. In particular, we argue that equity FDI reflects fundamental decisions on where to locate production, while credit extensions and re-invested profits are also tools to allocate profits. Accordingly, we expect credits and re-invested profits to depend more strongly on corporate tax rates.The paper then estimates the effect of taxes on FDI flows and on these three sub-components for the countries of the enlarged European Union. The model in the spirit of gravity equations robustly explains FDI flows between the 25 member states. Statistical tests show that sample selection needs to be addressed in the estimation. We show that the different sub-components of FDI indeed react differently to taxes.In the regressions without country and time dummies, we find the standard results confirmed: High host country tax rates deter investment flows while high source country tax rates increase the probability of observing FDI flows. After controlling for unobserved country characteristics and common time effects, the top statutory corporate tax rates of both, source and host country, turn insignificant for total FDI and investment into equity. Market size factors have the expected signs for tot...