Foreign migrants in the Moscow agglomeration: spatial and temporal analysis based on data from mobile operators

Abstract

The article analyzes the modern ethnic landscape of the Moscow agglomeration on the basis of data from mobile operators. The estimation of the number of foreign migrants and its monthly dynamics from October 2021 to October 2022 is made. The main areas of residence of foreigners have been identified, the ethnic diversity of municipalities has been assessed, and the main types of settlement pattern of national-ethnic communities have been identified. The study showed that the total number of foreign migrants in the agglomeration reaches 1.8 million people or 9% of the total population, remaining almost unchanged in spite of events of 2022, including the special military operation. The share of foreigners is minimal in ZATO (below 3%), it is also insignificant in the far suburbs of Moscow and in expensive districts of the capital city. At the same time, the threshold of 17% (the so-called “boiling point”, reflecting a sharp increase in the risks of interethnic conflicts and ghettoization of urban space) was overcome by 8 municipalities in the agglomeration. The two most noticeable areas of increased concentration of foreign migrants are identified in the south-east at the junction of Moscow and Moscow region (Lublino – Kotelniki) and in New Moscow (Mosrentgen – Sosenskoye). The calculation of the Ekkel ethnic mosaic index confirmed the presence of pronounced interethnic contact zones here. Increased index values were also noted in most central and southwest districts of Moscow, which, with a smaller proportion of foreigners living, are associated with a high density of offices, diplomatic institutions and universities. Three types of settlement patterns of national-ethnic groups of migrants, determined by the adaptive capabilities of ethnic communities, were revealed. Diffuse and relatively uniform settlement pattern is characteristic for both the most massive ethnic groups (citizens of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan) and the most culturally close to the local population (citizens of Ukraine and Belarus). Concentric settlement pattern (in residential areas of Moscow and satellite cities) is typical for relatively large ethnic groups coming from post-Soviet countries (citizens of Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia). The local settlement pattern is typical for small ethnic communities that gravitate to specific districts of the capital city.