Forensic Diagnostics of the Skeletal Age in the Living – Backgrounds and Methodology

In forensic age estimation, CT imaging of the clavicles is used to determine an age over completed 21 years. If ossification of the medial clavicular epiphysis is complete, young men are assumed to be over 21 years of age. The aim of this study is to check the statistical parameters (specificity, predictive probability) for the characteristic "completed ossification of the medial clavicles". 285 male patients who, for various reasons, received a chest CT at the Medical Center of the University of Freiburg between 1st December 2019 and 6th December 2022 were screened for the study, of whom 203 patients were included in the study. The stage of clavicular ossification was classified as stage 1 – 5 according to Schmeling. While 70 out of 71 patients under 21 years of age were correctly estimated to be under 21 years of age, there was one patient whose ossification on one side was classified as stage 4 and who would therefore have been estimated to be over 21 years of age. If only subjects whose ossification stage was the same on both sides are included, the specificity of the test method is 100% and the positive predictive probability is 100%. If patients for whom only one side is stage 4 are also included, the specificity is 98.6%. Thus, only the complete and symmetrical ossification of both clavicles (stage 4 according to the Schmeling classification) in a standardised thin-layer CT can be classified as a reliable indicator of an age over 21 years in young men. In the case of asymmetric ossification of the medial clavicles (stage 4 is not reached on one side), false positive evaluations and the incorrect assumption of an age over 21 years can occur.

Forensic age estimation of adolescents using computed tomography of the clavicles

Vamberszky,

Uhl

2024

Forensic age estimation by MRI of the knee – comparison of two classifications for ossification stages in a German population

Malokaj,

MF,

et al. 2024

Aim and objectives In forensic age estimation e.g. for judicial proceedings surpassed age thresholds can be legally relevant. To examine age related differences in skeletal development the recommendations by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics (AGFAD) are based on ionizing radiation (among others orthopantomograms, plain x-rays of the hand). Vieth et al. and Ottow et al. proposed MRI-classifications for the epiphyseal-diaphyseal fusion of the knee joint to define different age groups in healthy volunteers. The aim of the present study was to directly compare these two classifications in a large German patient population. Materials and methods MRI of the knee joint of 900 patients (405 female, 495 male) from 10 to 28 years of age were retrospectively analyzed. Acquired T1-weighted turbo spin-echo sequence (TSE) and T2-weighted sequence with fat suppression by turbo inversion recovery magnitude (TIRM) were analyzed for the two classifications. The different bony fusion stages of the two classifications were determined and the corresponding chronological ages assigned. Differences between the sexes were analyzed. Intra- and inter-observer agreements were determined using Cohen’s kappa. Results With the classification of Ottow et al. it was possible to determine completion of the 18th and 21st year of life in both sexes. With the classification of Vieth et al. completion of the 18th year of life for female patients and the 14th and 21st year of life in both sexes could be determined. The intra- and inter-observer agreement levels were very good (κ > 0.82). Conclusion In the large German patient cohort of this study it was possible to determine the 18th year of life with for both sexes with the classification of Ottow et al. and for female patients with the classification of Vieth et al. It was also possible to determine the 21st year of life for all bones with the classification of Ottow et al. and for the distal femur with the classification of Vieth et al.

A probability model for estimating age in young individuals relative to key legal thresholds: 15, 18 or 21-year

Heldring,

Rezaie,

Larsson

et al. 2024

Age estimations are relevant for pre-trial detention, sentencing in criminal cases and as part of the evaluation in asylum processes to protect the rights and privileges of minors. No current method can determine an exact chronological age due to individual variations in biological development. This study seeks to develop a validated statistical model for estimating an age relative to key legal thresholds (15, 18, and 21 years) based on a skeletal (CT-clavicle, radiography-hand/wrist or MR-knee) and tooth (radiography-third molar) developmental stages. The whole model is based on 34 scientific studies, divided into examinations of the hand/wrist (15 studies), clavicle (5 studies), distal femur (4 studies), and third molars (10 studies). In total, data from approximately 27,000 individuals have been incorporated and the model has subsequently been validated with data from 5,000 individuals. The core framework of the model is built upon transition analysis and is further developed by a combination of a type of parametric bootstrapping and Bayesian theory. Validation of the model includes testing the models on independent datasets of individuals with known ages and shows a high precision with separate populations aligning closely with the model’s predictions. The practical use of the complex statistical model requires a user-friendly tool to provide probabilities together with the margin of error. The assessment based on the model forms the medical component for the overall evaluation of an individual’s age.