Forest fires and climate-induced tree range shifts in the western US

Hill, Avery; Field, Christopher B.

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-26838-z

Cited by 24 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…In addition, there are numerous important non-climate drivers and disturbances which affect species' spatial distribution, including land use change, habitat loss and fragmentation, and disturbance regimes such as wildfire and extreme drought [55][56][57][58]. Lack of shifts could indicate that species are not keeping pace with the rate of climate change.…”

Section: Review Findings Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts

et al. 2023

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Background Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to rising temperatures associated with climate change. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these expectations. Here, we evaluate the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically, changes in temperature and precipitation) on species’ ranges, and assess whether expected range shifts are supported by the body of empirical evidence. Methods We conducted a Systematic Review, searching online databases and search engines in English. Studies were screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract review, followed by full-text review) to evaluate whether they met a list of eligibility criteria. Data coding, extraction, and study validity assessment was completed by a team of trained reviewers and each entry was validated by at least one secondary reviewer. We used logistic regression models to assess whether the direction of shift supported common range-shift expectations (i.e., shifts to higher latitudes and elevations, and deeper depths). We also estimated the magnitude of shifts for the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (i.e., km/decade). We accounted for methodological attributes at the study level as potential sources of variation. This allowed us to answer two questions: (1) are most species shifting in the direction we expect (i.e., each observation is assessed as support/fail to support our expectation); and (2) what is the average speed of range shifts? Review findings We found that less than half of all range-shift observations (46.60%) documented shifts towards higher latitudes, higher elevations, and greater marine depths, demonstrating significant variation in the empirical evidence for general range shift expectations. For the subset of studies looking at range shift rates, we found that species demonstrated significant average shifts towards higher latitudes (average = 11.8 km/dec) and higher elevations (average = 9 m/dec), although we failed to find significant evidence for shifts to greater marine depths. We found that methodological factors in individual range-shift studies had a significant impact on the reported direction and magnitude of shifts. Finally, we identified important variation across dimensions of range shifts (e.g., greater support for latitude and elevation shifts than depth), parameters (e.g., leading edge shifts faster than trailing edge for latitude), and taxonomic groups (e.g., faster latitudinal shifts for insects than plants). Conclusions Despite growing evidence that species are shifting their ranges in response to climate change, substantial variation exists in the extent to which definitively empirical observations confirm these expectations. Even though on average, rates of shift show significant movement to higher elevations and latitudes for many taxa, most species are not shifting in expected directions. Variation across dimensions and parameters of range shifts, as well as differences across taxonomic groups and variation driven by methodological factors, should be considered when assessing overall confidence in range-shift hypotheses. In order for managers to effectively plan for species redistribution, we need to better account for and predict which species will shift and by how much. The dataset produced for this analysis can be used for future research to explore additional hypotheses to better understand species range shifts.

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Section: Review Findings Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts

et al. 2023

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“…Managers must make strategic and tactical decisions with the highest certainty possible that treatments will be effective and that the resulting conditions are sustainable. For example, as climatic changes shift biophysical conditions across regions, many forest species may soon inhabit environments that are declining in suitability for establishment, growth, development, and reproduction (Decker et al 2021;Hill and Field 2021). Current ecotonal forests, for example, may appear healthy but will likely undergo lifeform or dominant cover type transitions to alternative cover types that are better suited to the changing environmental conditions Incorporating understanding of climate change in uences on species, disturbances, and environmental conditions is now essential at all levels of decision-making, where ensuring the long-term continuous ow of ecosystem goods and services is the goal (MacDicken et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating climate adaptation strategies in spatial decision support systems

Povak

Manley

Wilson³

2023

Preprint

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With the onset of rapid climate change and the legacy of past forest management and fire suppression policies, the capacity for forested landscapes to maintain core functionality and processes is being challenged. As such, managers are tasked with increasing the pace and scale of management to mitigate negative impacts of future large disturbances and improve resilience and climate adaptation of large landscapes. Such an effort will require consensus building, with partners and stakeholders to determine where to allocate scarce resources. We present a methodology to identify strategic (where to go) and tactical (what to do) priorities across large landscapes to assist in project level planning. The model integrates a spatial assessment of current ecological and resource conditions and spatial outputs from a landscape succession and disturbance simulation model (LANDIS-II) to assess the potential to achieve desired conditions under climate change with ongoing disturbances. Based on the expected trajectory of landscape conditions over time, the model applies multivalent reasoning (aka, fuzzy logic) to provide spatial decision support for four management strategies (Monitor, Protect, Adapt, and Transform) across the landscape. We apply these methods to a 970,000-ha landscape in the central Sierra Nevada Mountains of California with a focus on managing for improved carbon sequestration. By including future landscape conditions in the model, decisions made at the stand-level are inherently tied to and influenced by larger landscape-level processes that are likely to have the greatest influence on future landscape dynamics. Evaluations are adaptable to incorporating multiple metrics to capture the many resources management can influence such as forest resilience, fire dynamics, biodiversity conservation, and carbon sequestration. Model outputs could also be used as inputs into optimization models to assess tradeoffs and synergies between these conditions and resources, technical and economic feasibilities, and to develop long-term management plans.

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“…Empirical studies often describe the negative impacts of fire on tree regeneration at the warmer, more arid trailing edges of species distributions (Davis et al, 2019; Renwick et al, 2016), but empirical evidence for fire‐induced movement at the leading edges of species distributions is less clear perhaps due to the lack of robust datasets across species range limits (Brice et al, 2020; Hill & Field, 2021). In one study, fire increased the magnitude of range shifts toward cooler conditions for two of eight species in the western USA (Hill & Field, 2021), indicating that some species may be more likely than others to follow fire into new habitats. We know little, however, about which species life history traits might facilitate such expansion.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%