It is widely believed that population outbreaks of the southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalts Zimm.) are caused by vagaries of climate, such as periods of severe drought. According to this view, D. frontalts population dynamics are dominated by densityindependent processes. We have statistically analyzed a So-yr record of D. frontalts activity in east Texas and have assessed the relative roles of density-independent and density-dependent factors in beetle population fluctuations. Regressionsof the rate of population change on three climatic variables were not significant. By contrast, both time-series and regression analyses provided strong and consistent evidence for delayed density regulation of D. frontalts populations. Thus, in contrast to previous analyses, we conclude that D. frontalts outbreaks are driven not by stochastic fluctuations of weather, but by some unknown population process acting in a delayed density-dependent manner. This result provides a starting point for a current study that will experimentally test various hypotheses concerning the role of natural enemies in D. frontalts cycles.