FORMASY FOrecasting and Recruitment in MAnpower Systems

Abstract

Summary:In this paper the tools are dveloped for forecasting and recruitment planning ln a graded manpower system. Basic features of the presented approach are:-the system contains several grades or job categories in which the employees stay for a certain time before being promoted or leaving the system, -promotability and leaving rate for any employee depend on time spent 1n the job category and personal qualifications (like education, experience, age), -recruitment 1S not necessarily restricted to the lowest level ln the system, -several planning aims and restrictions are allowed.The approach is based on a generalized Markov model for the dynamic behaviour of an individual employee. On this Markov model a forecasting procedure and a recruitment-scheduling procedure are based.

Forecasting and Recruitment in Graded Manpower Systems

“…This can be obtained by introducing an extended concept of state for the Markov chain (see e.g. Forbes [3], Yessels and van Nunen [5]). …”

“…in which the dynamic character is used in a more direct way will be presented here. For a discussion on advantages and disadvantages of the linear programming versus the dynamic programming approach see [5].…”

“…From now on we assume that the grade structure is linear. l1oreover we assume that it is possible to derive, from the original model, the probabilities qgg (t) for finding an arbitrary employee t years \ 1 after his recruitment in grade g in grade gl (see 'also [5]). …”

“…In ref~ren ce [5] it is argued why in our opinion the dynamic approach for recruitment planning is preferable to the linear programming approach as described e.g. in ILl, [5]. Here the side conditions and the place of l1anpower planning in an organisation play an essential role.…”

“…Those aims and conditions may in turn restrict the amount of backwards induction. In ref~ren ce [5] it is argued why in our opinion the dynamic approach for recruitment planning is preferable to the linear programming approach as described e.g. in ILl, [5].…”