Formation and comparison of scenarios of geopolitical development of the Western Balkans

Abstract

The paper examines the geopolitical situation of the Western Balkans, a region defined along state borders by the European Union. The region includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia. For the purpose of the research, a survey was conducted among geography students in eight cities of the Western Balkans and in Zagreb. The survey was conducted according to the Delphi method in two rounds. By conducting research using a survey and the Delphi method, three scenarios of geopolitical development through 2031 were formed: "Euro-Atlantic integration", "Status quo" and "Reconstruction of the Western Balkans". By comparing the scenarios, it is apparent that the geopolitical development of the region in the next ten years will mostly follow the "Status quo" scenario, that is, according to the current geopolitical patterns of the region.